Fourth Down Data
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OHIO

Ohio

BobcatsRun-Heavy
Mid-American Conference3-9#115 (-6.78)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

14· FOverall
Offense
21· DRating
51· CPer play
65· CConsistency
68· CBig plays
Defense
13· FRating
16· DPer play
7· FConsistency
Situational
14· FRed-zone O
54· CRed-zone D
16· D3rd down O
25· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.040
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.129
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.013
Defensive EPA/play
+0.094
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.0%
Def Success Rate
51.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.081
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.013
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.90

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.34
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.42
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.07
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.08
own return game
Return Defense
+0.07
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#115
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#102
market 13 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
recruiting 43 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Ohio ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
36th
Opp-adjusted defense
10th
Offensive EPA/play
51th
Defensive EPA/play
16th
Offensive success rate
66th
Explosiveness
69th
Defensive havoc
5th
Points per drive
29th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Virginia Tech2025OA -0.015 / -0.060similar: passing offense, takeaway rate, defensive EPA3732Toledo2019OA -0.001 / -0.123similar: run defense, pass defense, offensive success rate3703Houston2019OA +0.003 / -0.090similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, rushing offense3614UCLA2018OA +0.036 / -0.086similar: run defense, TD drive rate, defensive EPA3515Kansas2019OA +0.049 / -0.077similar: havoc rate, turnover rate, run defense345

2021 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Syracuse9-29L+1.5L55.75U
2vs Duquesne26-28L+19.5L56.5O
3@ Louisiana14-49L----
4@ Northwestern6-35L+14.5L--
5@ Akron34-17W-9.5W55.5U
6vs Central Michigan27-30L+5.0W56.5O
7@ Buffalo26-27L+9.0W57U
8vs Kent State27-34L+5.5L66U
10vs Miami (OH)35-33W+6.0W61.5U
11@ Eastern Michigan34-26W+7.5L57.5O
12vs Toledo23-35L-6.0L48.5U
13@ Bowling Green10-21L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-6
45.5%
O/U Record
4-6
40.0%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS1-1
Underdog ATS4-5
Last 5 ATS
LWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off57thRush Off53thRed Zone Off14th3rd Down Off17thPass Def8thRush Def14thRed Zone Def55th3rd Down Def26th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.01450th+0.11411th
Red Zone-0.19914th-0.06555th
Third Down-0.11917th+0.19626th
No Garbage Time+0.01552th+0.08917th
First Half-0.02041th+0.02538th
Second Half+0.04971th+0.1953th
Early Downs+0.02461th+0.10011th
Passing Downs+0.02357th+0.1718th
Standard Downs+0.00953th+0.09014th
Goal to Go-0.20623th-0.18571th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 42.0%Rush 58.0%
Havoc/Game
9.1
Havoc Rate
12.3%
TO Margin
-0.7
Explosive/G
15.4
Yards/Game
371.4
Pts/Drive
1.90
3rd Down%
36.1%
3&Out%
18.6%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 12 games — Ohio vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOhioOpponents
Scoring
Points271364
Points / Game22.630.3
First Downs
Total242289
Rushing118120
Passing97144
Penalty2725
Rushing
Attempts434478
Yards2,2482,316
Yards / Carry5.24.8
Yards / Game187.3193.0
Touchdowns2025
Passing
Attempts314387
Completions201261
Completion %64.0%67.4%
Yards2,2092,871
Yards / Attempt7.07.4
Touchdowns1117
Interceptions86
Passer Rating129.57141.15
Total Offense
Plays748865
Yards4,4575,187
Yards / Play6.06.0
Yards / Game371.4432.3
Punt Returns
Returns1012
Yards54126
Average5.410.5
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns4630
Yards778536
Average16.917.9
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts4740
Yards1,9301,634
Average41.140.9
Interception Returns
Returns68
Yards19127
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles148
Lost82
Penalties
Penalties7481
Yards703762
Yards / Game58.663.5
Time of Possession
Per Game29:4230:01
Third Downs
Attempts144166
Conversions5273
Conversion %36.1%44.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1726
Conversions1115
Conversion %64.7%57.7%
Red Zone
Trips3761
Scores (TD + FG)3152
Score %83.8%85.2%
Touchdowns1734
TD %45.9%55.7%
Field Goals
Attempts2426
Made1622
Pct66.7%84.6%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2937
Made2736
Pct93.1%97.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts25
Made12
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →