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HOU
Houston
CougarsRun-HeavyBig 12 Conference4-8#62 (+0.82)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
54· COverall
Offense
51· CRating
50· CPer play
32· DConsistency
61· CBig plays
Defense
44· CRating
5· FPer play
33· DConsistency
Situational
31· DRed-zone O
4· FRed-zone D
38· D3rd down O
7· F3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.003
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.090
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.010
Defensive EPA/play
+0.145
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.4%
Def Success Rate
47.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.135
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.053
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.22
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+2.54
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.87
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+1.38
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.23
own return game
Return Defense
+0.06
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#62
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#52
recruiting 10 spots higher
3 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Houston ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense52th
Opp-adjusted defense17th
Offensive EPA/play50th
Defensive EPA/play5th
Offensive success rate32th
Explosiveness61th
Defensive havoc37th
Points per drive51th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Coastal Carolina2017OA +0.006 / -0.136similar: pass defense, takeaway rate, TD drive rate3672Southern Miss2020OA -0.014 / -0.036similar: takeaway rate, TD drive rate, defensive success rate3633Ohio2021OA -0.040 / -0.129similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, rushing offense3614Kansas2019OA +0.049 / -0.077similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, offensive success rate3495Toledo2019OA -0.001 / -0.123similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, takeaway rate343
2019 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Oklahoma | 31-49 | L | +21.5 | W | 80 | P |
| 2 | vs Prairie View A&M | 37-17 | W | -35.0 | L | 77.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Washington State | 24-31 | L | +9.0 | W | 73.5 | U |
| 4 | @ Tulane | 31-38 | L | +4.0 | L | 57 | O |
| 5 | @ North Texas | 46-25 | W | +7.5 | W | 59 | O |
| 7 | vs Cincinnati | 23-38 | L | +10.0 | L | 50.5 | O |
| 8 | @ UConn | 24-17 | W | -21.0 | L | 56 | U |
| 9 | vs SMU | 31-34 | L | +12.0 | W | 65.5 | U |
| 10 | @ UCF | 29-44 | L | +22.0 | W | 73.5 | U |
| 12 | vs Memphis | 27-45 | L | +10.0 | L | 72 | P |
| 13 | @ Tulsa | 24-14 | W | +6.5 | W | 58 | U |
| 14 | vs Navy | 41-56 | L | +10.0 | L | 56 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
4-6-2
40.0%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS0-2
Underdog ATS6-4
Last 5 ATS
WWLWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.012 | 51th | +0.136 | 4th |
| Red Zone | -0.109 | 31th | +0.252 | 4th |
| Third Down | -0.013 | 39th | +0.290 | 7th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.020 | 55th | +0.151 | 5th |
| First Half | +0.100 | 78th | +0.083 | 26th |
| Second Half | -0.081 | 23th | +0.185 | 1th |
| Early Downs | -0.031 | 34th | +0.053 | 23th |
| Passing Downs | +0.040 | 54th | +0.345 | 2th |
| Standard Downs | -0.003 | 49th | +0.027 | 34th |
| Goal to Go | -0.065 | 46th | -0.064 | 55th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 40.3%Rush 59.7%
Havoc/Game
12.5
Havoc Rate
17.5%
TO Margin
-0.6
Explosive/G
14.8
Yards/Game
391.5
Pts/Drive
2.22
3rd Down%
34.8%
3&Out%
17.5%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 12 games — Houston vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Houston | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 368 | 408 |
| Points / Game | 30.7 | 34.0 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 233 | 259 |
| Rushing | 112 | 104 |
| Passing | 97 | 137 |
| Penalty | 24 | 18 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 466 | 414 |
| Yards | 2,258 | 2,149 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.8 | 5.2 |
| Yards / Game | 188.2 | 179.1 |
| Touchdowns | 20 | 24 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 314 | 410 |
| Completions | 176 | 251 |
| Completion % | 56.1% | 61.2% |
| Yards | 2,440 | 3,461 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.8 | 8.4 |
| Touchdowns | 19 | 29 |
| Interceptions | 12 | 8 |
| Passer Rating | 133.65 | 151.57 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 780 | 824 |
| Yards | 4,698 | 5,610 |
| Yards / Play | 6.0 | 6.8 |
| Yards / Game | 391.5 | 467.5 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 16 | 19 |
| Yards | 182 | 137 |
| Average | 11.4 | 7.2 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 26 | 31 |
| Yards | 564 | 546 |
| Average | 21.7 | 17.6 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 54 | 57 |
| Yards | 2,531 | 2,235 |
| Average | 46.9 | 39.2 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 8 | 12 |
| Yards | 83 | 39 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 17 | 10 |
| Lost | 9 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 58 | 91 |
| Yards | 579 | 826 |
| Yards / Game | 48.3 | 68.8 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 31:06 | 28:54 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 155 | 163 |
| Conversions | 54 | 65 |
| Conversion % | 34.8% | 39.9% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 17 | 23 |
| Conversions | 12 | 13 |
| Conversion % | 70.6% | 56.5% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 43 | 45 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 38 | 40 |
| Score % | 88.4% | 88.9% |
| Touchdowns | 22 | 34 |
| TD % | 51.2% | 75.6% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 24 | 14 |
| Made | 20 | 10 |
| Pct | 83.3% | 71.4% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 40 | 52 |
| Made | 40 | 52 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 4 | 2 |
| Made | 2 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.