Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
GAST

Georgia State

PanthersBalanced
Sun Belt Conference1-11#128 (-17.70)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

6· FOverall
Offense
21· DRating
32· DPer play
26· DConsistency
17· DBig plays
Defense
5· FRating
2· FPer play
7· FConsistency
Situational
48· CRed-zone O
8· FRed-zone D
37· D3rd down O
6· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.043
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.171
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.056
Defensive EPA/play
+0.172
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.8%
Def Success Rate
51.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
28.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.228
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.093
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.61

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.95
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.86
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.80
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.13
own return game
Return Defense
-0.16
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#128
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#128
model & market agree
Recruiting Rank
#79
recruiting 49 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Georgia State ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
37th
Opp-adjusted defense
2th
Offensive EPA/play
32th
Defensive EPA/play
2th
Offensive success rate
27th
Explosiveness
17th
Defensive havoc
9th
Points per drive
13th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Kansas2019OA +0.049 / -0.077similar: rushing offense, takeaway rate, havoc rate3862Nebraska2017OA +0.058 / -0.086similar: run defense, turnover rate, havoc rate3453Cincinnati2017OA -0.045 / -0.091similar: havoc rate, pass defense, offensive success rate3424Oklahoma State2024OA +0.003 / -0.056similar: rushing offense, defensive EPA, pass defense3395UTEP2019OA -0.113 / -0.192similar: pass defense, TD drive rate, defensive EPA335

2025 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Ole Miss7-63L+32.8L60.5O
2vs Memphis16-38L+14.5L57.5U
3vs Murray State37-21W-31.5L63.5U
4@ Vanderbilt21-70L+28.0L53O
6vs James Madison7-14L+7.5W28.5U
7vs App State20-41L+29.5W51.5O
8@ Georgia Southern24-41L+6.5L59.5O
9vs South Alabama31-38L----
11@ Coastal Carolina27-40L+9.5L70.5U
12vs Marshall18-30L+7.5L54.5U
13@ Troy19-31L+7.5L37.5O
14@ Old Dominion10-27L+19.5W43.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-9
25.0%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
1-11
8.3%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS1-5
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS3-8
Last 5 ATS
LLLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off50thRush Off30thRed Zone Off48th3rd Down Off38thPass Def2thRush Def6thRed Zone Def8th3rd Down Def6th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.03438th+0.1741th
Red Zone-0.01648th+0.2058th
Third Down-0.00038th+0.3656th
No Garbage Time-0.05733th+0.1892th
First Half+0.00246th+0.1427th
Second Half-0.06627th+0.2102th
Early Downs-0.03636th+0.1201th
Passing Downs-0.01950th+0.2732th
Standard Downs-0.04230th+0.1296th
Goal to Go+0.16974th+0.3048th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 56.5%Rush 43.5%
Havoc/Game
10.1
Havoc Rate
14.1%
TO Margin
-0.9
Explosive/G
12.8
Yards/Game
378.2
Pts/Drive
1.61
3rd Down%
38.6%
3&Out%
19.7%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 12 games — Georgia State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatGeorgia StateOpponents
Scoring
Points237454
Points / Game19.837.8
First Downs
Total235283
Rushing77132
Passing138122
Penalty2029
Rushing
Attempts366498
Yards1,4892,497
Yards / Carry4.15.0
Yards / Game124.1208.1
Touchdowns931
Passing
Attempts475340
Completions288219
Completion %60.6%64.4%
Yards3,0492,889
Yards / Attempt6.48.5
Touchdowns2225
Interceptions113
Passer Rating125.20158.29
Total Offense
Plays841838
Yards4,5385,386
Yards / Play5.46.4
Yards / Game378.2448.8
Punt Returns
Returns824
Yards10357
Average1.314.9
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns287
Yards510200
Average18.228.6
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5540
Yards2,4741,699
Average45.042.5
Interception Returns
Returns311
Yards48104
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles177
Lost63
Penalties
Penalties10372
Yards815644
Yards / Game67.953.7
Time of Possession
Per Game30:1129:49
Third Downs
Attempts176161
Conversions6876
Conversion %38.6%47.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3420
Conversions1512
Conversion %44.1%60.0%
Red Zone
Trips3862
Scores (TD + FG)2755
Score %71.1%88.7%
Touchdowns2344
TD %60.5%71.0%
Field Goals
Attempts1621
Made716
Pct43.8%76.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2154
Made2054
Pct95.2%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts104
Made32
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →