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CIN
Cincinnati
BearcatsBalancedBig 12 Conference4-8#111 (-13.41)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
17· DOverall
Offense
17· DRating
47· CPer play
22· DConsistency
68· CBig plays
Defense
15· DRating
21· DPer play
27· DConsistency
Situational
31· DRed-zone O
80· BRed-zone D
58· C3rd down O
21· D3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.045
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.091
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.031
Defensive EPA/play
+0.079
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.6%
Def Success Rate
47.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.110
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.014
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.70
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.88
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.05
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.85
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.10
own return game
Return Defense
+0.11
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#111
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 36 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Cincinnati ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense30th
Opp-adjusted defense20th
Offensive EPA/play47th
Defensive EPA/play21th
Offensive success rate30th
Explosiveness69th
Defensive havoc8th
Points per drive20th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Georgia Tech2021OA +0.003 / -0.081similar: havoc rate, offensive EPA, defensive success rate3592Stanford2026OA -0.036 / -0.136similar: pass defense, defensive success rate, turnover rate3553Kansas2019OA +0.049 / -0.077similar: rushing offense, havoc rate, offensive EPA3544Hawai'i2017OA -0.026 / -0.193similar: turnover rate, pass defense, offensive EPA3505Virginia Tech2025OA -0.015 / -0.060similar: run defense, rushing offense, havoc rate349
2017 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Austin Peay | 26-14 | W | -43.0 | L | - | - |
| 2 | @ Michigan | 14-36 | L | +32.5 | W | 50 | P |
| 3 | @ Miami (OH) | 21-17 | W | +3.5 | W | 49 | U |
| 4 | @ Navy | 32-42 | L | +7.5 | L | 52.5 | O |
| 5 | vs Marshall | 21-38 | L | -3.0 | L | 52.5 | O |
| 6 | vs UCF | 23-51 | L | +15.0 | L | 53.5 | O |
| 7 | @ South Florida | 3-33 | L | +24.0 | L | 63 | U |
| 8 | vs SMU | 28-31 | L | +5.5 | W | 65 | U |
| 10 | @ Tulane | 17-16 | W | +5.5 | W | 52 | U |
| 11 | vs Temple | 24-35 | L | +3.0 | L | 49.5 | O |
| 12 | @ East Carolina | 20-48 | L | -4.5 | L | 66.5 | O |
| 13 | vs UConn | 22-21 | W | -6.5 | L | 58.5 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
5-5-1
50.0%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS1-5
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS0-4
Underdog ATS4-4
Last 5 ATS
WWLLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.016 | 50th | +0.065 | 23th |
| Red Zone | -0.077 | 31th | -0.157 | 80th |
| Third Down | +0.046 | 59th | +0.145 | 21th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.016 | 50th | +0.075 | 21th |
| First Half | -0.067 | 36th | +0.089 | 25th |
| Second Half | +0.031 | 71th | +0.036 | 27th |
| Early Downs | -0.065 | 38th | -0.013 | 42th |
| Passing Downs | +0.061 | 67th | +0.150 | 15th |
| Standard Downs | -0.060 | 39th | +0.022 | 29th |
| Goal to Go | -0.012 | 49th | -0.324 | 89th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 53.9%Rush 46.1%
Havoc/Game
9.7
Havoc Rate
12.9%
TO Margin
-0.4
Explosive/G
14.6
Yards/Game
351.8
Pts/Drive
1.70
3rd Down%
39.0%
3&Out%
26.9%
Team Statistics
2017 season totals across 12 games — Cincinnati vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Cincinnati | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 251 | 382 |
| Points / Game | 20.9 | 31.8 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 236 | 275 |
| Rushing | 92 | 119 |
| Passing | 120 | 124 |
| Penalty | 24 | 32 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 371 | 526 |
| Yards | 1,624 | 2,309 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.4 | 4.4 |
| Yards / Game | 135.3 | 192.4 |
| Touchdowns | 11 | 19 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 434 | 353 |
| Completions | 245 | 219 |
| Completion % | 56.5% | 62.0% |
| Yards | 2,597 | 2,833 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.0 | 8.0 |
| Touchdowns | 20 | 23 |
| Interceptions | 9 | 5 |
| Passer Rating | 117.78 | 148.12 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 805 | 879 |
| Yards | 4,221 | 5,142 |
| Yards / Play | 5.2 | 5.8 |
| Yards / Game | 351.8 | 428.5 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 14 | 15 |
| Yards | 95 | 67 |
| Average | 6.8 | 4.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 35 | 33 |
| Yards | 724 | 658 |
| Average | 20.7 | 19.9 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 64 | 49 |
| Yards | 2,688 | 2,121 |
| Average | 42.0 | 43.3 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 5 | 9 |
| Yards | 83 | 190 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 3 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 15 | 15 |
| Lost | 7 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 94 | 86 |
| Yards | 876 | 802 |
| Yards / Game | 73.0 | 66.8 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 26:36 | 32:09 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 172 | 178 |
| Conversions | 67 | 77 |
| Conversion % | 39.0% | 43.3% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 15 | 18 |
| Conversions | 8 | 14 |
| Conversion % | 53.3% | 77.8% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 44 | 46 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 33 | 40 |
| Score % | 75.0% | 87.0% |
| Touchdowns | 24 | 24 |
| TD % | 54.5% | 52.2% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 17 | 27 |
| Made | 9 | 20 |
| Pct | 52.9% | 74.1% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 27 | 43 |
| Made | 24 | 42 |
| Pct | 88.9% | 97.7% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 5 | 3 |
| Made | 4 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.