Fourth Down Data
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WMU

Western Michigan

BroncosRun-Heavy
Mid-American Conference6-7#82 (-1.44)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

39· DOverall
Offense
61· CRating
75· BPer play
70· BConsistency
44· CBig plays
Defense
18· DRating
13· FPer play
6· FConsistency
Situational
77· BRed-zone O
10· FRed-zone D
35· D3rd down O
33· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.021
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.047
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.062
Defensive EPA/play
+0.091
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.9%
Def Success Rate
50.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.029
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.164
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.54

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.11
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.79
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.87
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.07
own return game
Return Defense
-0.12
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#82
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#77
market 5 higher
Recruiting Rank
#80
recruiting 2 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Western Michigan ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
72th
Opp-adjusted defense
11th
Offensive EPA/play
75th
Defensive EPA/play
13th
Offensive success rate
64th
Explosiveness
44th
Defensive havoc
28th
Points per drive
73th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Arkansas2017OA -0.037 / -0.079similar: offensive success rate, passing offense, pass defense3762Temple2025OA +0.068 / -0.135similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, offensive EPA3543Georgia State2019OA +0.036 / -0.159similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, run defense3514Arizona State2018OA +0.072 / -0.049similar: offensive EPA, takeaway rate, rushing offense3515Louisiana2018OA +0.079 / -0.152similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, run defense344

2024 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Wisconsin14-28L----
2@ Ohio State0-56L+38.8L54.25O
3vs Bethune-Cookman59-31W-32.5L51.5O
5@ Marshall20-27L+3.5L54U
6@ Ball State45-42W-9.5L56.5O
7vs Akron34-24W-9.5W53.5O
8@ Buffalo48-41W-1.0W48.5O
9vs Kent State52-21W-17.0W59.5O
11vs Northern Illinois28-42L+9.5L57.5U
12@ Bowling Green13-31L-6.0L56.5U
13@ Central Michigan14-16L----
14vs Eastern Michigan26-18W-7.0W56.5U
16vs South Alabama23-30L+7.5W57.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-7
46.2%
O/U Record
7-6
53.8%
Straight Up
6-7
46.2%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS2-5
Favorite ATS4-3
Underdog ATS2-4
Last 5 ATS
LLLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off51thRush Off76thRed Zone Off78th3rd Down Off36thPass Def46thRush Def2thRed Zone Def10th3rd Down Def34th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.05165th+0.10510th
Red Zone+0.13478th+0.21710th
Third Down+0.02936th+0.16534th
No Garbage Time+0.04165th+0.08812th
First Half+0.02256th+0.09016th
Second Half+0.08375th+0.12211th
Early Downs+0.05481th+0.1135th
Passing Downs+0.03151th+0.02446th
Standard Downs+0.06076th+0.1422th
Goal to Go+0.05557th+0.3843th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 40.0%Rush 60.0%
Havoc/Game
10.8
Havoc Rate
16.2%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
13.4
Yards/Game
370.0
Pts/Drive
2.54
3rd Down%
35.2%
3&Out%
19.2%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 13 games — Western Michigan vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatWestern MichiganOpponents
Scoring
Points376407
Points / Game28.931.3
First Downs
Total253275
Rushing122131
Passing113123
Penalty1821
Rushing
Attempts484500
Yards2,3792,502
Yards / Carry4.95.0
Yards / Game183.0192.5
Touchdowns2828
Passing
Attempts323344
Completions212211
Completion %65.6%61.3%
Yards2,4312,894
Yards / Attempt7.58.4
Touchdowns1820
Interceptions98
Passer Rating141.67146.54
Total Offense
Plays807844
Yards4,8105,396
Yards / Play6.06.4
Yards / Game370.0415.1
Punt Returns
Returns1713
Yards6849
Average4.03.8
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns4149
Yards8631,039
Average21.021.2
Touchdowns04
Punting
Punts5244
Yards2,0861,726
Average40.139.2
Interception Returns
Returns89
Yards13969
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1223
Lost413
Penalties
Penalties5460
Yards509503
Yards / Game39.238.7
Time of Possession
Per Game29:3429:43
Third Downs
Attempts159164
Conversions5670
Conversion %35.2%42.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3116
Conversions1913
Conversion %61.3%81.3%
Red Zone
Trips4246
Scores (TD + FG)3842
Score %90.5%91.3%
Touchdowns3031
TD %71.4%67.4%
Field Goals
Attempts1621
Made1314
Pct81.3%66.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4748
Made4747
Pct100.0%97.9%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts14
Made03
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →