Fourth Down Data
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GAST

Georgia State

PanthersRun-Heavy
Sun Belt Conference7-6#119 (-13.36)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

12· FOverall
Offense
55· CRating
87· BPer play
92· A-Consistency
86· BBig plays
Defense
3· FRating
4· FPer play
16· DConsistency
Situational
79· BRed-zone O
0· FRed-zone D
50· C3rd down O
4· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.036
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.159
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.114
Defensive EPA/play
+0.154
lower = better
Off Success Rate
51.8%
Def Success Rate
49.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.040
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.196
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.62

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.39
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.18
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.76
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.39
own return game
Return Defense
-0.06
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#119
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 44 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Georgia State ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
65th
Opp-adjusted defense
2th
Offensive EPA/play
88th
Defensive EPA/play
4th
Offensive success rate
93th
Explosiveness
87th
Defensive havoc
19th
Points per drive
80th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1North Texas2020OA +0.038 / -0.073similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, run defense3682Baylor2022OA +0.078 / -0.009similar: TD drive rate, turnover rate, offensive success rate3613Northern Illinois2021OA +0.071 / -0.096similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, defensive success rate3544Western Michigan2024OA +0.021 / -0.047similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, run defense3515Toledo2019OA -0.001 / -0.123similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, run defense347

2019 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Tennessee38-30W+7.5L49.5O
2vs Furman48-42W-6.0P61.5O
3@ Western Michigan10-57L+9.0L69.5U
4@ Texas State34-37L+3.0P62.5O
6vs Arkansas State52-38W+6.5W69O
7@ Coastal Carolina31-21W+3.5W64.5U
8vs Army28-21W+4.0W54.5U
9vs Troy52-33W+1.0W67O
11@ UL Monroe31-45L-3.0L77U
12vs App State27-56L+15.0L61.5O
13vs South Alabama28-15W-9.5W57U
14@ Georgia Southern10-38L+6.5L56U
19@ Wyoming17-38L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-5-2
50.0%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS1-3
Favorite ATS1-1
Underdog ATS4-4
Last 5 ATS
WLLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off39thRush Off96thRed Zone Off80th3rd Down Off51thPass Def9thRush Def6thRed Zone Def0th3rd Down Def4th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.09884th+0.1533th
Red Zone+0.14980th+0.3470th
Third Down+0.02751th+0.3594th
No Garbage Time+0.12489th+0.1564th
First Half+0.10078th+0.1575th
Second Half+0.09682th+0.1484th
Early Downs+0.12091th+0.1294th
Passing Downs-0.02939th+0.2479th
Standard Downs+0.15296th+0.1066th
Goal to Go+0.03155th+0.3078th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 39.2%Rush 60.8%
Havoc/Game
10.9
Havoc Rate
15.7%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
18.5
Yards/Game
439.8
Pts/Drive
2.62
3rd Down%
45.6%
3&Out%
18.7%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 13 games — Georgia State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatGeorgia StateOpponents
Scoring
Points406471
Points / Game31.236.2
First Downs
Total305287
Rushing159143
Passing129126
Penalty1718
Rushing
Attempts596524
Yards3,1412,829
Yards / Carry5.35.4
Yards / Game241.6217.6
Touchdowns3033
Passing
Attempts385362
Completions238230
Completion %61.8%63.5%
Yards2,5773,093
Yards / Attempt6.78.5
Touchdowns2227
Interceptions99
Passer Rating132.23154.95
Total Offense
Plays981886
Yards5,7185,922
Yards / Play5.86.7
Yards / Game439.8455.5
Punt Returns
Returns1015
Yards32143
Average3.29.5
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns826
Yards114616
Average14.323.7
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5147
Yards2,0971,958
Average41.141.7
Interception Returns
Returns99
Yards14875
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1321
Lost78
Penalties
Penalties5665
Yards557586
Yards / Game42.845.1
Time of Possession
Per Game29:3730:23
Third Downs
Attempts195179
Conversions8981
Conversion %45.6%45.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2724
Conversions1313
Conversion %48.1%54.2%
Red Zone
Trips5655
Scores (TD + FG)4649
Score %82.1%89.1%
Touchdowns3840
TD %67.9%72.7%
Field Goals
Attempts1819
Made1214
Pct66.7%73.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5256
Made5053
Pct96.2%94.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts16
Made12
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →