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BALL
Ball State
CardinalsBalancedMid-American Conference6-7#61 (+1.38)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
54· COverall
Offense
31· DRating
23· DPer play
30· DConsistency
16· DBig plays
Defense
35· DRating
32· DPer play
21· DConsistency
Situational
76· BRed-zone O
44· CRed-zone D
30· D3rd down O
63· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.052
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.056
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.073
Defensive EPA/play
+0.034
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.5%
Def Success Rate
48.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.107
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.128
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.91
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+3.64
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.58
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.88
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.89
own return game
Return Defense
+1.29
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#61
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#72
model 11 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
model 11 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Ball State ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense29th
Opp-adjusted defense24th
Offensive EPA/play23th
Defensive EPA/play32th
Offensive success rate35th
Explosiveness17th
Defensive havoc18th
Points per drive30th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Kentucky2017OA +0.002 / -0.044similar: defensive EPA, run defense, offensive success rate3582Illinois2021OA -0.054 / +0.040similar: passing offense, turnover rate, offensive EPA3583Virginia Tech2021OA -0.008 / +0.025similar: TD drive rate, run defense, offensive EPA3464UL Monroe2021OA -0.153 / -0.028similar: run defense, defensive success rate, havoc rate3425Minnesota2023OA -0.016 / -0.030similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, defensive EPA340
2021 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Western Illinois | 31-21 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | @ Penn State | 13-44 | L | +22.5 | L | 54.5 | O |
| 3 | @ Wyoming | 12-45 | L | +7.0 | L | 53 | O |
| 4 | vs Toledo | 12-22 | L | +5.0 | L | 56.5 | U |
| 5 | vs Army | 28-16 | W | +9.0 | W | 47.5 | U |
| 6 | @ Western Michigan | 45-20 | W | +11.0 | W | 58 | O |
| 7 | @ Eastern Michigan | 38-31 | W | -1.5 | W | 55.5 | O |
| 8 | vs Miami (OH) | 17-24 | L | -5.0 | L | 51.5 | U |
| 10 | @ Akron | 31-25 | W | -2.5 | L | 61.5 | U |
| 11 | @ Northern Illinois | 29-30 | L | +1.0 | L | 59.25 | U |
| 12 | vs Central Michigan | 17-37 | L | -6.5 | W | 59.5 | U |
| 13 | vs Buffalo | 20-3 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 17 | vs Georgia State | 20-51 | L | +6.0 | L | 53 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
4-9
30.8%
O/U Record
5-8
38.5%
Straight Up
6-7
46.2%
Home ATS2-5
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS2-4
Underdog ATS2-5
Last 5 ATS
LLLWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.067 | 26th | +0.023 | 37th |
| Red Zone | +0.098 | 77th | -0.011 | 44th |
| Third Down | -0.014 | 30th | +0.022 | 64th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.077 | 23th | +0.032 | 35th |
| First Half | -0.073 | 29th | +0.100 | 17th |
| Second Half | -0.060 | 27th | -0.053 | 62th |
| Early Downs | -0.061 | 29th | +0.064 | 16th |
| Passing Downs | -0.139 | 17th | -0.123 | 77th |
| Standard Downs | -0.026 | 38th | +0.088 | 16th |
| Goal to Go | +0.417 | 96th | -0.076 | 60th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 49.8%Rush 50.2%
Havoc/Game
11.1
Havoc Rate
15.1%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
13.2
Yards/Game
338.3
Pts/Drive
1.91
3rd Down%
40.3%
3&Out%
22.9%
Team Statistics
2021 season totals across 13 games — Ball State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Ball State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 313 | 369 |
| Points / Game | 24.1 | 28.4 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 247 | 288 |
| Rushing | 95 | 130 |
| Passing | 128 | 140 |
| Penalty | 24 | 18 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 444 | 528 |
| Yards | 1,699 | 2,293 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.8 | 4.3 |
| Yards / Game | 130.7 | 176.4 |
| Touchdowns | 17 | 22 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 440 | 398 |
| Completions | 267 | 263 |
| Completion % | 60.7% | 66.1% |
| Yards | 2,699 | 3,110 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.1 | 7.8 |
| Touchdowns | 18 | 17 |
| Interceptions | 7 | 15 |
| Passer Rating | 122.53 | 138.28 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 884 | 926 |
| Yards | 4,398 | 5,403 |
| Yards / Play | 5.0 | 5.8 |
| Yards / Game | 338.3 | 415.6 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 16 | 8 |
| Yards | 166 | 28 |
| Average | 10.4 | 3.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 31 | 23 |
| Yards | 703 | 374 |
| Average | 22.7 | 16.3 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 64 | 52 |
| Yards | 2,687 | 2,037 |
| Average | 42.0 | 39.2 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 15 | 7 |
| Yards | 140 | 171 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 4 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 16 | 11 |
| Lost | 5 | 4 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 64 | 74 |
| Yards | 531 | 704 |
| Yards / Game | 40.8 | 54.2 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 27:39 | 32:21 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 186 | 170 |
| Conversions | 75 | 69 |
| Conversion % | 40.3% | 40.6% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 21 | 21 |
| Conversions | 11 | 11 |
| Conversion % | 52.4% | 52.4% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 40 | 45 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 35 | 40 |
| Score % | 87.5% | 88.9% |
| Touchdowns | 24 | 26 |
| TD % | 60.0% | 57.8% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 24 | 22 |
| Made | 18 | 19 |
| Pct | 75.0% | 86.4% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 36 | 42 |
| Made | 35 | 40 |
| Pct | 97.2% | 95.2% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 2 |
| Made | 0 | 2 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.