Fourth Down Data
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UNM

New Mexico

LobosRun-Heavy
Mountain West Conference3-9#122 (-18.24)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

9· FOverall
Offense
4· FRating
27· DPer play
33· DConsistency
63· CBig plays
Defense
22· DRating
32· DPer play
39· DConsistency
Situational
4· FRed-zone O
5· FRed-zone D
12· F3rd down O
55· C3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.132
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.058
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.085
Defensive EPA/play
+0.046
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.8%
Def Success Rate
45.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.131
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.094
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.64

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.53
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.04
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-1.51
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.12
own return game
Return Defense
+0.06
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#122
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 47 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where New Mexico ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
9th
Opp-adjusted defense
29th
Offensive EPA/play
27th
Defensive EPA/play
32th
Offensive success rate
32th
Explosiveness
64th
Defensive havoc
38th
Points per drive
17th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Georgia Southern2021OA -0.108 / -0.054similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, defensive success rate4052Tulsa2025OA -0.071 / -0.025similar: offensive EPA, pass defense, takeaway rate3523South Alabama2019OA -0.148 / -0.021similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, run defense3514Old Dominion2017OA -0.153 / -0.078similar: passing offense, run defense, defensive EPA3365Ball State2017OA -0.115 / -0.131similar: takeaway rate, passing offense, offensive success rate331

2017 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Abilene Christian38-14W-34.0L--
2vs New Mexico State28-30L-7.5L68.5U
3@ Boise State14-28L+16.0W56U
4@ Tulsa16-13W+10.0W68U
5vs Air Force56-38W+3.0W51O
7@ Fresno State0-38L-2.5L55U
8vs Colorado State24-27L+9.5W61U
9@ Wyoming3-42L+2.5L46.5U
10vs Utah State10-24L-3.0L51.5U
11@ Texas A&M14-55L+19.0L53O
12vs UNLV35-38L-2.5L55O
13@ San Diego State10-35L+21.0L46.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
3-8
27.3%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS0-5
Underdog ATS4-3
Last 5 ATS
LLLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off36thRush Off21thRed Zone Off5th3rd Down Off12thPass Def39thRush Def31thRed Zone Def5th3rd Down Def56th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.08823th+0.01836th
Red Zone-0.3235th+0.2665th
Third Down-0.34612th-0.04556th
No Garbage Time-0.11219th+0.05725th
First Half-0.16912th+0.2033th
Second Half-0.00456th-0.17389th
Early Downs-0.03751th+0.05519th
Passing Downs-0.05936th+0.01439th
Standard Downs-0.10321th+0.02031th
Goal to Go-0.09733th-0.08560th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 30.9%Rush 69.1%
Havoc/Game
11.3
Havoc Rate
17.0%
TO Margin
-1.3
Explosive/G
13.3
Yards/Game
359.5
Pts/Drive
1.64
3rd Down%
30.1%
3&Out%
25.0%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 12 games — New Mexico vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNew MexicoOpponents
Scoring
Points248382
Points / Game20.731.8
First Downs
Total211235
Rushing13087
Passing59131
Penalty2217
Rushing
Attempts542406
Yards2,8251,889
Yards / Carry5.24.7
Yards / Game235.4157.4
Touchdowns2120
Passing
Attempts242373
Completions120222
Completion %49.6%59.5%
Yards1,4892,887
Yards / Attempt6.27.7
Touchdowns828
Interceptions146
Passer Rating100.61146.09
Total Offense
Plays784779
Yards4,3144,776
Yards / Play5.56.1
Yards / Game359.5398.0
Punt Returns
Returns1711
Yards58117
Average3.410.6
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns439
Yards906151
Average21.116.8
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts6770
Yards3,1703,073
Average47.343.9
Interception Returns
Returns614
Yards162131
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles2616
Lost157
Penalties
Penalties7364
Yards613599
Yards / Game51.149.9
Time of Possession
Per Game32:2427:36
Third Downs
Attempts163162
Conversions4962
Conversion %30.1%38.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2311
Conversions106
Conversion %43.5%54.5%
Red Zone
Trips3238
Scores (TD + FG)2336
Score %71.9%94.7%
Touchdowns1730
TD %53.1%78.9%
Field Goals
Attempts1512
Made1011
Pct66.7%91.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2848
Made2847
Pct100.0%97.9%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts32
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →