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BUF
Buffalo
BullsRun-HeavyMid-American Conference8-5#79 (-3.29)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
41· COverall
Offense
36· DRating
60· CPer play
72· BConsistency
51· CBig plays
Defense
58· CRating
99· A+Per play
90· A-Consistency
Situational
88· BRed-zone O
86· BRed-zone D
64· C3rd down O
98· A+3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.058
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.150
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.038
Defensive EPA/play
-0.220
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.8%
Def Success Rate
40.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.258
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.228
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.59
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-2.38
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.91
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.42
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.09
own return game
Return Defense
+0.03
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#79
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 4 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Buffalo ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense27th
Opp-adjusted defense95th
Offensive EPA/play60th
Defensive EPA/play100th
Offensive success rate78th
Explosiveness51th
Defensive havoc90th
Points per drive77th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Northwestern2017OA -0.036 / +0.113similar: pass defense, havoc rate, defensive success rate4102Mississippi State2017OA +0.003 / +0.186similar: defensive success rate, offensive success rate, rushing offense4043Western Michigan2025OA -0.069 / +0.069similar: pass defense, havoc rate, run defense3754Cincinnati2019OA +0.024 / +0.099similar: passing offense, pass defense, rushing offense3695Maryland2026OA -0.021 / +0.097similar: offensive success rate, run defense, defensive EPA366
2019 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Robert Morris | 38-10 | W | -7.0 | W | 52.5 | U |
| 2 | @ Penn State | 13-45 | L | +31.5 | L | 57 | O |
| 3 | @ Liberty | 17-35 | L | -6.0 | L | 55 | U |
| 4 | vs Temple | 38-22 | W | +14.0 | W | 51 | O |
| 5 | @ Miami (OH) | 20-34 | L | -2.5 | L | 47.5 | O |
| 6 | vs Ohio | 20-21 | L | +3.0 | W | 53 | U |
| 8 | @ Akron | 21-0 | W | -17.5 | W | 48 | U |
| 9 | vs Central Michigan | 43-20 | W | -1.5 | W | 46.5 | O |
| 10 | @ Eastern Michigan | 43-14 | W | -2.0 | W | 49.5 | O |
| 12 | @ Kent State | 27-30 | L | -6.0 | L | 55 | O |
| 13 | vs Toledo | 49-30 | W | -10.0 | W | 54.5 | O |
| 14 | vs Bowling Green | 49-7 | W | -28.0 | W | 53.5 | O |
| 17 | @ Charlotte | 31-9 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-4
66.7%
O/U Record
8-4
66.7%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS5-0
Away ATS3-4
Favorite ATS6-3
Underdog ATS2-1
Last 5 ATS
WWLWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.040 | 59th | -0.171 | 97th |
| Red Zone | +0.215 | 89th | -0.214 | 86th |
| Third Down | +0.101 | 64th | -0.317 | 99th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.043 | 63th | -0.224 | 100th |
| First Half | +0.164 | 90th | -0.177 | 94th |
| Second Half | -0.102 | 19th | -0.166 | 96th |
| Early Downs | -0.005 | 46th | -0.096 | 85th |
| Passing Downs | +0.070 | 64th | -0.321 | 99th |
| Standard Downs | +0.026 | 63th | -0.088 | 81th |
| Goal to Go | +0.300 | 90th | -0.302 | 84th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 29.7%Rush 70.3%
Havoc/Game
13.8
Havoc Rate
22.8%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
15.4
Yards/Game
388.5
Pts/Drive
2.59
3rd Down%
44.8%
3&Out%
21.9%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 13 games — Buffalo vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Buffalo | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 409 | 277 |
| Points / Game | 31.5 | 21.3 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 276 | 199 |
| Rushing | 173 | 75 |
| Passing | 83 | 105 |
| Penalty | 20 | 19 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 659 | 428 |
| Yards | 3,256 | 1,224 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.9 | 2.9 |
| Yards / Game | 250.5 | 94.2 |
| Touchdowns | 36 | 15 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 278 | 352 |
| Completions | 150 | 206 |
| Completion % | 54.0% | 58.5% |
| Yards | 1,795 | 2,571 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.5 | 7.3 |
| Touchdowns | 14 | 18 |
| Interceptions | 6 | 11 |
| Passer Rating | 120.50 | 130.50 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 937 | 780 |
| Yards | 5,051 | 3,795 |
| Yards / Play | 5.4 | 4.9 |
| Yards / Game | 388.5 | 291.9 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 14 | 15 |
| Yards | 94 | 165 |
| Average | 6.7 | 11.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 9 | 37 |
| Yards | 181 | 772 |
| Average | 20.1 | 20.9 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 53 | 60 |
| Yards | 1,859 | 2,437 |
| Average | 35.1 | 40.6 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 11 | 6 |
| Yards | 152 | 111 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 11 | 18 |
| Lost | 8 | 11 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 64 | 67 |
| Yards | 580 | 525 |
| Yards / Game | 44.6 | 40.4 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 34:08 | 25:42 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 194 | 178 |
| Conversions | 87 | 60 |
| Conversion % | 44.8% | 33.7% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 25 | 33 |
| Conversions | 16 | 14 |
| Conversion % | 64.0% | 42.4% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 55 | 41 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 50 | 28 |
| Score % | 90.9% | 68.3% |
| Touchdowns | 41 | 20 |
| TD % | 74.5% | 48.8% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 19 | 17 |
| Made | 11 | 12 |
| Pct | 57.9% | 70.6% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 54 | 31 |
| Made | 50 | 31 |
| Pct | 92.6% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 4 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.