Fourth Down Data
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MSST

Mississippi State

BulldogsRun-Heavy
Southeastern Conference9-4#21 (+13.49)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

84· BOverall
Offense
67· CRating
51· CPer play
77· BConsistency
69· CBig plays
Defense
87· BRating
93· APer play
89· BConsistency
Situational
63· CRed-zone O
97· A+Red-zone D
59· C3rd down O
89· B3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.003
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.186
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.014
Defensive EPA/play
-0.189
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.6%
Def Success Rate
40.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.174
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.036
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.43

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.49
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.55
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.05
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.09
own return game
Return Defense
+0.07
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#21
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#19
AP 2 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#30
model 9 spots higher
12 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Mississippi State ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
55th
Opp-adjusted defense
95th
Offensive EPA/play
52th
Defensive EPA/play
94th
Offensive success rate
80th
Explosiveness
70th
Defensive havoc
98th
Points per drive
74th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Buffalo2019OA -0.058 / +0.150similar: defensive success rate, offensive success rate, rushing offense4042Northwestern2017OA -0.036 / +0.113similar: takeaway rate, defensive success rate, defensive EPA3883Cincinnati2019OA +0.024 / +0.099similar: offensive EPA, run defense, passing offense3874Jacksonville State2023OA -0.052 / +0.090similar: passing offense, defensive EPA, turnover rate3695Maryland2026OA -0.021 / +0.097similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, offensive success rate369

2017 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Charleston Southern49-0W+6.5W60U
2@ Louisiana Tech57-21W-10.5W66.5O
3vs LSU37-7W+7.5W54.5U
4@ Georgia3-31L+2.5L50U
5@ Auburn10-49L+7.5L51O
7vs BYU35-10W-23.0W49.5U
8vs Kentucky45-7W-14.0W54.5U
9@ Texas A&M35-14W-3.5W55.5U
10vs Massachusetts34-23W-34.5L58U
11vs Alabama24-31L+14.5W49O
12@ Arkansas28-21W-14.0L56U
13vs Ole Miss28-31L-14.0L64.5U
18vs Louisville31-27W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
3-9
25.0%
Straight Up
8-4
66.7%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS4-3
Underdog ATS3-2
Last 5 ATS
WLWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off52thRush Off50thRed Zone Off64th3rd Down Off59thPass Def83thRush Def96thRed Zone Def98th3rd Down Def90th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.03247th-0.18895th
Red Zone+0.05864th-0.44598th
Third Down+0.05059th-0.31390th
No Garbage Time-0.02049th-0.17491th
First Half-0.02150th-0.17887th
Second Half-0.04241th-0.19992th
Early Downs-0.06737th-0.20798th
Passing Downs-0.02552th-0.16583th
Standard Downs-0.03550th-0.20296th
Goal to Go-0.04645th-0.26282th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 35.8%Rush 64.2%
Havoc/Game
15.2
Havoc Rate
25.5%
TO Margin
-0.1
Explosive/G
15.6
Yards/Game
418.6
Pts/Drive
2.43
3rd Down%
46.2%
3&Out%
16.3%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 13 games — Mississippi State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMississippi StateOpponents
Scoring
Points416272
Points / Game32.020.9
First Downs
Total299175
Rushing18280
Passing9972
Penalty1823
Rushing
Attempts634448
Yards3,2721,711
Yards / Carry5.23.8
Yards / Game251.7131.6
Touchdowns3018
Passing
Attempts353313
Completions191159
Completion %54.1%50.8%
Yards2,1702,271
Yards / Attempt6.17.3
Touchdowns1713
Interceptions1413
Passer Rating113.71117.15
Total Offense
Plays987761
Yards5,4423,982
Yards / Play5.55.2
Yards / Game418.6306.3
Punt Returns
Returns249
Yards23143
Average9.64.8
Touchdowns20
Kickoff Returns
Returns2929
Yards604520
Average20.817.9
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5584
Yards2,3013,442
Average41.841.0
Interception Returns
Returns1314
Yards384366
Touchdowns32
Fumbles
Fumbles1322
Lost88
Penalties
Penalties8065
Yards710626
Yards / Game54.648.2
Time of Possession
Per Game33:2326:37
Third Downs
Attempts197171
Conversions9152
Conversion %46.2%30.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2516
Conversions136
Conversion %52.0%37.5%
Red Zone
Trips5830
Scores (TD + FG)5024
Score %86.2%80.0%
Touchdowns3817
TD %65.5%56.7%
Field Goals
Attempts1814
Made1411
Pct77.8%78.6%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5234
Made5033
Pct96.2%97.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts10
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →