Fourth Down Data
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WMU

Western Michigan

BroncosRun-Heavy
Mid-American Conference10-4#89 (-5.19)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

34· DOverall
Offense
12· FRating
48· CPer play
67· CConsistency
48· CBig plays
Defense
63· CRating
90· A-Per play
79· BConsistency
Situational
54· CRed-zone O
93· ARed-zone D
23· D3rd down O
96· A3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.069
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.069
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.007
Defensive EPA/play
-0.139
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.8%
Def Success Rate
42.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.132
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.077
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.20

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.31
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.42
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.03
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.17
own return game
Return Defense
+0.10
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#89
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#78
market 11 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
recruiting 10 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Western Michigan ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
25th
Opp-adjusted defense
76th
Offensive EPA/play
48th
Defensive EPA/play
91th
Offensive success rate
70th
Explosiveness
48th
Defensive havoc
92th
Points per drive
47th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Northwestern2017OA -0.036 / +0.113similar: run defense, offensive success rate, pass defense4192Buffalo2019OA -0.058 / +0.150similar: pass defense, havoc rate, run defense3783Auburn2019OA -0.022 / +0.217similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, TD drive rate3774Jacksonville State2023OA -0.052 / +0.090similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, passing offense3715Mississippi State2018OA -0.053 / +0.185similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, run defense367

2025 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Michigan State6-23L----
2vs North Texas30-33L-2.5L55.5O
3@ Illinois0-38L+27.5L50.5U
4vs Toledo14-13W+12.5W28.5U
5vs Rhode Island47-14W-7.0W45.5O
6@ Massachusetts21-3W-13.0W46U
7vs Ball State42-0W-28.5W37.5O
9@ Miami (OH)17-26L-1.5L36.5O
10vs Central Michigan24-21W+2.0W42.5O
12vs Ohio17-13W-7.0W39O
13@ Northern Illinois35-19W-10.0P48.5O
14@ Eastern Michigan31-21W----
15vs Miami (OH)23-13W-1.5W43.5U
17vs Kennesaw State41-6W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
10-3-1
76.9%
O/U Record
7-7
50.0%
Straight Up
10-4
71.4%
Home ATS7-1
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS7-2
Underdog ATS3-1
Last 5 ATS
WWPWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off16thRush Off58thRed Zone Off55th3rd Down Off23thPass Def99thRush Def67thRed Zone Def94th3rd Down Def97th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.04135th-0.14093th
Red Zone+0.02555th-0.29894th
Third Down-0.06923th-0.26597th
No Garbage Time-0.01642th-0.14190th
First Half+0.00649th-0.16292th
Second Half-0.08719th-0.11888th
Early Downs+0.01358th-0.09680th
Passing Downs-0.17516th-0.28299th
Standard Downs+0.02358th-0.05667th
Goal to Go-0.12530th+0.17625th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 32.9%Rush 67.1%
Havoc/Game
13.8
Havoc Rate
21.9%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
13.0
Yards/Game
342.7
Pts/Drive
2.20
3rd Down%
40.3%
3&Out%
17.4%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 14 games — Western Michigan vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatWestern MichiganOpponents
Scoring
Points348243
Points / Game24.917.4
First Downs
Total265233
Rushing15795
Passing88114
Penalty2024
Rushing
Attempts623469
Yards2,8591,758
Yards / Carry4.63.7
Yards / Game204.2125.6
Touchdowns3116
Passing
Attempts305390
Completions185216
Completion %60.7%55.4%
Yards1,9392,519
Yards / Attempt6.46.5
Touchdowns1014
Interceptions612
Passer Rating120.94115.33
Total Offense
Plays928859
Yards4,7984,277
Yards / Play5.25.0
Yards / Game342.7305.5
Punt Returns
Returns1911
Yards10679
Average5.67.2
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3323
Yards655372
Average19.816.2
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5773
Yards2,4173,054
Average42.441.8
Interception Returns
Returns126
Yards21318
Touchdowns20
Fumbles
Fumbles2119
Lost912
Penalties
Penalties6466
Yards558582
Yards / Game39.941.6
Time of Possession
Per Game32:3527:25
Third Downs
Attempts191180
Conversions7757
Conversion %40.3%31.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3220
Conversions149
Conversion %43.8%45.0%
Red Zone
Trips4946
Scores (TD + FG)3634
Score %73.5%73.9%
Touchdowns3125
TD %63.3%54.3%
Field Goals
Attempts2116
Made1412
Pct66.7%75.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4224
Made4021
Pct95.2%87.5%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts25
Made12
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →