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Mississippi State

BulldogsRun-Heavy
Southeastern Conference8-5#20 (+7.30)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

85· BOverall
Offense
64· CRating
34· DPer play
47· CConsistency
25· DBig plays
Defense
97· A+Rating
92· A-Per play
93· AConsistency
Situational
70· BRed-zone O
99· A+Red-zone D
25· D3rd down O
97· A+3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.053
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.185
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.026
Defensive EPA/play
-0.173
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.7%
Def Success Rate
39.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.147
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.077
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.27

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.39
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.15
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.50
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.07
own return game
Return Defense
+0.03
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#20
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 6 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#27
model 7 spots higher
16 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Mississippi State ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
30th
Opp-adjusted defense
98th
Offensive EPA/play
34th
Defensive EPA/play
93th
Offensive success rate
52th
Explosiveness
25th
Defensive havoc
96th
Points per drive
58th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Wisconsin2022OA -0.016 / +0.093similar: run defense, offensive EPA, passing offense3812Western Michigan2025OA -0.069 / +0.069similar: defensive EPA, run defense, TD drive rate3663Northwestern2017OA -0.036 / +0.113similar: run defense, offensive EPA, defensive success rate3464Auburn2019OA -0.022 / +0.217similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, offensive success rate3465San Diego State2025OA -0.102 / +0.118similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, offensive EPA344

2018 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Stephen F. Austin63-6W-7.0L40O
2@ Kansas State31-10W-6.5W51.5U
3vs Louisiana56-10W-34.0W62.5O
4@ Kentucky7-28L-9.5L56U
5vs Florida6-13L-6.5L49.5U
6vs Auburn23-9W+3.0W45U
8@ LSU3-19L+6.0L45.5U
9vs Texas A&M28-13W-1.5W42.5U
10vs Louisiana Tech45-3W-23.0W49U
11@ Alabama0-24L+21.5L50U
12vs Arkansas52-6W-22.5W49O
13@ Ole Miss35-3W-12.5W61U
19@ Iowa22-27L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
3-9
25.0%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS5-1
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS6-3
Underdog ATS1-2
Last 5 ATS
WWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off30thRush Off51thRed Zone Off70th3rd Down Off25thPass Def99thRush Def83thRed Zone Def100th3rd Down Def98th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.01242th-0.18695th
Red Zone+0.08370th-0.485100th
Third Down-0.07825th-0.36298th
No Garbage Time-0.01540th-0.16292th
First Half+0.05568th-0.16189th
Second Half-0.08817th-0.21099th
Early Downs+0.06980th-0.09883th
Passing Downs-0.05030th-0.30599th
Standard Downs+0.00551th-0.10883th
Goal to Go+0.15369th-0.62198th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 38.6%Rush 61.4%
Havoc/Game
15.9
Havoc Rate
24.2%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
11.7
Yards/Game
397.4
Pts/Drive
2.27
3rd Down%
41.5%
3&Out%
23.4%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 13 games — Mississippi State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMississippi StateOpponents
Scoring
Points371171
Points / Game28.513.2
First Downs
Total255212
Rushing15390
Passing8798
Penalty1524
Rushing
Attempts514431
Yards2,9071,236
Yards / Carry5.72.9
Yards / Game223.695.1
Touchdowns267
Passing
Attempts323398
Completions165220
Completion %51.1%55.3%
Yards2,2592,184
Yards / Attempt7.05.5
Touchdowns228
Interceptions1013
Passer Rating126.12101.47
Total Offense
Plays837829
Yards5,1663,420
Yards / Play6.24.1
Yards / Game397.4263.1
Punt Returns
Returns217
Yards11652
Average5.57.4
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2136
Yards436806
Average20.822.4
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5672
Yards2,1762,876
Average38.939.9
Interception Returns
Returns1310
Yards102122
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles914
Lost37
Penalties
Penalties8362
Yards748475
Yards / Game57.536.5
Time of Possession
Per Game31:0128:59
Third Downs
Attempts171177
Conversions7147
Conversion %41.5%26.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1723
Conversions68
Conversion %35.3%34.8%
Red Zone
Trips4234
Scores (TD + FG)3725
Score %88.1%73.5%
Touchdowns2910
TD %69.0%29.4%
Field Goals
Attempts1627
Made1222
Pct75.0%81.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4715
Made4715
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts10
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →