Fourth Down Data
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DUKE

Duke

Blue DevilsBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference7-6#39 (+6.99)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

71· BOverall
Offense
48· CRating
36· DPer play
44· CConsistency
42· CBig plays
Defense
83· BRating
88· BPer play
84· BConsistency
Situational
32· DRed-zone O
40· CRed-zone D
42· C3rd down O
92· A-3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.014
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.122
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.053
Defensive EPA/play
-0.167
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.3%
Def Success Rate
41.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.114
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.159
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.86

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.68
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.31
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-1.01
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.01
own return game
Return Defense
+0.04
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#39
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#44
model 5 spots higher
5 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Duke ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
47th
Opp-adjusted defense
87th
Offensive EPA/play
36th
Defensive EPA/play
89th
Offensive success rate
51th
Explosiveness
43th
Defensive havoc
84th
Points per drive
32th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Texas A&M2021OA -0.092 / +0.152similar: run defense, pass defense, defensive success rate3892Oklahoma State2020OA -0.004 / +0.038similar: TD drive rate, defensive success rate, offensive EPA3793Clemson2023OA -0.056 / +0.214similar: pass defense, passing offense, turnover rate3724NC State2023OA -0.033 / +0.114similar: havoc rate, defensive EPA, TD drive rate3695Virginia2025OA -0.007 / +0.085similar: havoc rate, defensive success rate, run defense363

2017 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs North Carolina Central60-7W-5.5W49O
2vs Northwestern41-17W+2.0W54O
3vs Baylor34-20W-10.5W61.5U
4@ North Carolina27-17W+1.5W61.5U
5vs Miami6-31L+5.5L55U
6@ Virginia21-28L-1.0L52.5U
7vs Florida State10-17L+7.0P45.5U
8vs Pittsburgh17-24L-9.5L49U
9@ Virginia Tech3-24L+17.5L48U
11@ Army16-21L-3.5L51U
12vs Georgia Tech43-20W+6.5W49O
13@ Wake Forest31-23W+10.5W58U
18@ Northern Illinois36-14W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-5-1
54.5%
O/U Record
3-9
25.0%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS3-2
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS2-3
Underdog ATS4-2
Last 5 ATS
LLLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off60thRush Off24thRed Zone Off32th3rd Down Off43thPass Def96thRush Def73thRed Zone Def41th3rd Down Def93th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.05332th-0.16289th
Red Zone-0.06932th+0.05441th
Third Down-0.03943th-0.34793th
No Garbage Time-0.05436th-0.15286th
First Half-0.07434th-0.15383th
Second Half-0.03047th-0.17188th
Early Downs-0.11516th-0.02047th
Passing Downs+0.01960th-0.27196th
Standard Downs-0.09224th-0.09573th
Goal to Go-0.18225th-0.08057th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.2%Rush 53.8%
Havoc/Game
14.5
Havoc Rate
22.1%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
15.9
Yards/Game
384.8
Pts/Drive
1.86
3rd Down%
39.2%
3&Out%
22.1%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 13 games — Duke vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatDukeOpponents
Scoring
Points345263
Points / Game26.520.2
First Downs
Total299212
Rushing141103
Passing13687
Penalty2222
Rushing
Attempts547498
Yards2,2281,992
Yards / Carry4.14.0
Yards / Game171.4153.2
Touchdowns2216
Passing
Attempts469330
Completions266167
Completion %56.7%50.6%
Yards2,7742,332
Yards / Attempt5.97.1
Touchdowns1616
Interceptions1215
Passer Rating112.54116.88
Total Offense
Plays1,016828
Yards5,0024,324
Yards / Play4.95.2
Yards / Game384.8332.6
Punt Returns
Returns1926
Yards107186
Average5.67.2
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns3052
Yards6981,008
Average23.319.4
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6873
Yards2,7913,282
Average41.045.0
Interception Returns
Returns1512
Yards22499
Touchdowns41
Fumbles
Fumbles1810
Lost74
Penalties
Penalties6274
Yards541695
Yards / Game41.653.5
Time of Possession
Per Game31:2328:37
Third Downs
Attempts209178
Conversions8257
Conversion %39.2%32.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2727
Conversions176
Conversion %63.0%22.2%
Red Zone
Trips5325
Scores (TD + FG)4421
Score %83.0%84.0%
Touchdowns2615
TD %49.1%60.0%
Field Goals
Attempts2213
Made189
Pct81.8%69.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4034
Made3732
Pct92.5%94.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts30
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →