Fourth Down Data
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FRES

Fresno State

BulldogsBalanced
Pac-12 Conference9-4#74 (-2.38)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

45· COverall
Offense
24· DRating
21· DPer play
29· DConsistency
18· DBig plays
Defense
62· CRating
95· APer play
89· BConsistency
Situational
10· FRed-zone O
12· FRed-zone D
4· F3rd down O
78· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.086
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.081
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.090
Defensive EPA/play
-0.163
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.4%
Def Success Rate
39.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.073
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.069
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.92

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.73
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.22
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.37
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.02
own return game
Return Defense
+0.12
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#74
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#51
market 23 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
model 5 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Fresno State ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
18th
Opp-adjusted defense
79th
Offensive EPA/play
21th
Defensive EPA/play
96th
Offensive success rate
31th
Explosiveness
19th
Defensive havoc
84th
Points per drive
30th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1California2018OA -0.154 / +0.144similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, offensive success rate4112UAB2019OA -0.120 / +0.036similar: offensive success rate, defensive EPA, offensive EPA3493Southern Miss2018OA -0.135 / +0.134similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, passing offense3464Middle Tennessee2021OA -0.066 / +0.065similar: rushing offense, takeaway rate, passing offense3435Southern Miss2022OA -0.126 / +0.054similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, passing offense341

2025 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0@ Kansas7-31L+14.0L50U
1vs Georgia Southern42-14W+1.0W49O
2@ Oregon State36-27W-3.5W54O
3vs Southern56-7W-37.5W51O
4@ Hawai'i23-21W-3.0L46.5U
6vs Nevada20-17W-6.5L47.5O
7@ Colorado State21-49L----
9vs San Diego State0-23L+7.5L26.5U
10@ Boise State30-7W-3.5W40.5U
12vs Wyoming24-3W-3.0W40.5U
13vs Utah State17-28L-2.5L51U
14@ San José State41-14W-3.5W46.5O
18vs Miami (OH)18-3W-5.5W32.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
5-8
38.5%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS6-4
Underdog ATS1-2
Last 5 ATS
WWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off46thRush Off9thRed Zone Off10th3rd Down Off4thPass Def98thRush Def87thRed Zone Def13th3rd Down Def79th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.08224th-0.17696th
Red Zone-0.22010th+0.19013th
Third Down-0.2714th-0.09379th
No Garbage Time-0.09421th-0.16695th
First Half-0.08122th-0.11383th
Second Half-0.08223th-0.24098th
Early Downs-0.04135th-0.18497th
Passing Downs-0.03346th-0.27698th
Standard Downs-0.1089th-0.11587th
Goal to Go-0.4197th-0.14369th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 43.3%Rush 56.7%
Havoc/Game
13.2
Havoc Rate
21.1%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
12.6
Yards/Game
353.8
Pts/Drive
1.92
3rd Down%
36.2%
3&Out%
25.9%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 13 games — Fresno State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatFresno StateOpponents
Scoring
Points335244
Points / Game25.818.8
First Downs
Total246214
Rushing10893
Passing11694
Penalty2227
Rushing
Attempts488422
Yards2,2161,715
Yards / Carry4.54.1
Yards / Game170.5131.9
Touchdowns229
Passing
Attempts373368
Completions239198
Completion %64.1%53.8%
Yards2,3841,999
Yards / Attempt6.45.4
Touchdowns1418
Interceptions1320
Passer Rating123.18104.71
Total Offense
Plays861790
Yards4,6003,714
Yards / Play5.34.7
Yards / Game353.8285.7
Punt Returns
Returns218
Yards18124
Average8.63.0
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns2226
Yards464418
Average21.116.1
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5267
Yards2,0962,708
Average40.340.4
Interception Returns
Returns2013
Yards232191
Touchdowns22
Fumbles
Fumbles1513
Lost76
Penalties
Penalties8690
Yards788792
Yards / Game60.660.9
Time of Possession
Per Game32:1527:34
Third Downs
Attempts177174
Conversions6463
Conversion %36.2%36.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2122
Conversions911
Conversion %42.9%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips4930
Scores (TD + FG)3825
Score %77.6%83.3%
Touchdowns2221
TD %44.9%70.0%
Field Goals
Attempts2716
Made2110
Pct77.8%62.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3426
Made3426
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts55
Made20
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →