Fourth Down Data
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ECU

East Carolina

PiratesBalanced
American Conference2-10#101 (-3.96)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

26· DOverall
Offense
3· FRating
1· FPer play
1· FConsistency
4· FBig plays
Defense
68· CRating
80· BPer play
95· AConsistency
Situational
38· DRed-zone O
93· ARed-zone D
12· F3rd down O
32· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.182
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.019
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.214
Defensive EPA/play
-0.057
lower = better
Off Success Rate
38.2%
Def Success Rate
40.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
18.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.158
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.073
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.19

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.02
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.37
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.75
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.21
own return game
Return Defense
+0.11
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#101
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#111
model 10 higher
Recruiting Rank
#68
recruiting 33 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where East Carolina ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
2th
Opp-adjusted defense
61th
Offensive EPA/play
1th
Defensive EPA/play
81th
Offensive success rate
1th
Explosiveness
4th
Defensive havoc
71th
Points per drive
2th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1San José State2021OA -0.188 / +0.025similar: defensive EPA, turnover rate, rushing offense3922Florida State2018OA -0.108 / +0.043similar: takeaway rate, offensive success rate, turnover rate3853Stanford2025OA -0.085 / +0.028similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, pass defense3444Virginia2022OA -0.103 / +0.066similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, TD drive rate3385Michigan State2020OA -0.049 / +0.004similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, rushing offense323

2023 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Michigan3-30L+36.0W51.5U
2vs Marshall13-31L+3.0L43.5O
3@ App State28-43L+9.5L48O
4vs Gardner-Webb44-0W-13.5W51.5U
5@ Rice17-24L+3.5L46.5U
7vs SMU10-31L----
8vs Charlotte7-10L-7.0L41U
9@ UTSA27-41L+18.5W46.5O
10vs Tulane10-13L+16.5W47.5U
11@ Florida Atlantic22-7W+8.0W45.5U
12@ Navy0-10L+2.5L32.5U
13vs Tulsa27-29L-3.0L44.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
4-8
33.3%
Straight Up
2-10
16.7%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS4-5
Last 5 ATS
WWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off2thRush Off10thRed Zone Off38th3rd Down Off12thPass Def12thRush Def98thRed Zone Def94th3rd Down Def32th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.2001th-0.07286th
Red Zone-0.05438th-0.22194th
Third Down-0.05112th+0.23732th
No Garbage Time-0.2221th-0.05177th
First Half-0.10315th-0.06379th
Second Half-0.3011th-0.08181th
Early Downs-0.1567th-0.22598th
Passing Downs-0.3092th+0.18012th
Standard Downs-0.12410th-0.23698th
Goal to Go+0.31392th-0.37291th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 50.2%Rush 49.8%
Havoc/Game
13.7
Havoc Rate
20.2%
TO Margin
-0.4
Explosive/G
11.1
Yards/Game
277.3
Pts/Drive
1.19
3rd Down%
30.9%
3&Out%
32.2%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 12 games — East Carolina vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatEast CarolinaOpponents
Scoring
Points208269
Points / Game17.322.4
First Downs
Total181212
Rushing7774
Passing91113
Penalty1325
Rushing
Attempts385436
Yards1,3601,466
Yards / Carry3.53.4
Yards / Game113.3122.2
Touchdowns1213
Passing
Attempts388345
Completions208210
Completion %53.6%60.9%
Yards1,9672,630
Yards / Attempt5.17.6
Touchdowns719
Interceptions146
Passer Rating94.93139.60
Total Offense
Plays773781
Yards3,3274,096
Yards / Play4.35.2
Yards / Game277.3341.3
Punt Returns
Returns1315
Yards96117
Average7.47.8
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2022
Yards319400
Average15.918.2
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6760
Yards2,7702,423
Average41.340.4
Interception Returns
Returns614
Yards7396
Touchdowns21
Fumbles
Fumbles820
Lost710
Penalties
Penalties7064
Yards658565
Yards / Game54.847.1
Time of Possession
Per Game28:4130:39
Third Downs
Attempts175175
Conversions5470
Conversion %30.9%40.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2618
Conversions96
Conversion %34.6%33.3%
Red Zone
Trips3342
Scores (TD + FG)2732
Score %81.8%76.2%
Touchdowns1720
TD %51.5%47.6%
Field Goals
Attempts2526
Made1814
Pct72.0%53.8%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2131
Made2029
Pct95.2%93.5%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts12
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →