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UNM
New Mexico
LobosRun-HeavyMountain West Conference2-10#131 (-22.83)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
3· FOverall
Offense
1· FRating
16· DPer play
31· DConsistency
62· CBig plays
Defense
10· FRating
7· FPer play
34· DConsistency
Situational
21· DRed-zone O
30· DRed-zone D
6· F3rd down O
13· F3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.156
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.122
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.105
Defensive EPA/play
+0.123
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.9%
Def Success Rate
47.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
27.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.228
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.019
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.52
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.02
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.66
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.69
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.09
own return game
Return Defense
-0.04
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#131
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 56 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where New Mexico ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense4th
Opp-adjusted defense9th
Offensive EPA/play16th
Defensive EPA/play7th
Offensive success rate48th
Explosiveness63th
Defensive havoc15th
Points per drive11th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1New Mexico State2024OA -0.045 / -0.045similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, rushing offense3912Arkansas2019OA -0.077 / -0.071similar: run defense, rushing offense, havoc rate3793Virginia Tech2025OA -0.015 / -0.060similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, pass defense3634Oregon State2017OA -0.058 / -0.168similar: offensive EPA, turnover rate, pass defense3605Florida State2020OA -0.023 / -0.044similar: havoc rate, defensive EPA, defensive success rate352
2019 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Sam Houston | 39-31 | W | -6.5 | W | 62.5 | O |
| 3 | @ Notre Dame | 14-66 | L | +34.5 | L | 64 | O |
| 4 | vs New Mexico State | 55-52 | W | -4.0 | L | 69 | O |
| 5 | @ Liberty | 10-17 | L | +7.5 | W | 72 | U |
| 6 | @ San José State | 21-32 | L | +6.5 | L | 70 | U |
| 7 | vs Colorado State | 21-35 | L | +4.0 | L | 66.5 | U |
| 8 | @ Wyoming | 10-23 | L | +17.5 | W | 49 | U |
| 9 | vs Hawai'i | 31-45 | L | +10.0 | L | 70.5 | O |
| 10 | @ Nevada | 10-21 | L | +4.0 | L | 58 | U |
| 12 | @ Boise State | 9-42 | L | +26.0 | L | 57.5 | U |
| 13 | vs Air Force | 22-44 | L | +24.0 | W | 56.5 | O |
| 14 | vs Utah State | 25-38 | L | +12.5 | L | 63.5 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
2-10
16.7%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS1-1
Underdog ATS3-7
Last 5 ATS
LLLWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.033 | 33th | +0.116 | 7th |
| Red Zone | -0.187 | 21th | +0.064 | 30th |
| Third Down | -0.250 | 6th | +0.239 | 13th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.089 | 21th | +0.117 | 7th |
| First Half | -0.180 | 5th | +0.162 | 4th |
| Second Half | +0.108 | 84th | +0.062 | 23th |
| Early Downs | +0.017 | 54th | +0.053 | 24th |
| Passing Downs | -0.108 | 22th | +0.146 | 19th |
| Standard Downs | +0.008 | 53th | +0.100 | 7th |
| Goal to Go | -0.073 | 43th | +0.092 | 25th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 39.8%Rush 60.2%
Havoc/Game
11.4
Havoc Rate
15.5%
TO Margin
-1.3
Explosive/G
14.5
Yards/Game
400.3
Pts/Drive
1.52
3rd Down%
36.7%
3&Out%
21.9%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 12 games — New Mexico vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | New Mexico | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 267 | 446 |
| Points / Game | 22.3 | 37.2 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 245 | 269 |
| Rushing | 115 | 101 |
| Passing | 103 | 143 |
| Penalty | 27 | 25 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 501 | 456 |
| Yards | 2,463 | 1,971 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.9 | 4.3 |
| Yards / Game | 205.3 | 164.3 |
| Touchdowns | 20 | 22 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 331 | 412 |
| Completions | 163 | 258 |
| Completion % | 49.2% | 62.6% |
| Yards | 2,340 | 3,857 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.1 | 9.4 |
| Touchdowns | 13 | 34 |
| Interceptions | 15 | 4 |
| Passer Rating | 112.53 | 166.55 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 832 | 868 |
| Yards | 4,803 | 5,828 |
| Yards / Play | 5.8 | 6.7 |
| Yards / Game | 400.3 | 485.7 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 24 | 18 |
| Yards | 147 | 131 |
| Average | 6.1 | 7.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 26 | 19 |
| Yards | 627 | 439 |
| Average | 24.1 | 23.1 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 60 | 54 |
| Yards | 2,738 | 2,392 |
| Average | 45.6 | 44.3 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 4 | 15 |
| Yards | 71 | 133 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 21 | 15 |
| Lost | 11 | 7 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 81 | 80 |
| Yards | 729 | 702 |
| Yards / Game | 60.8 | 58.5 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:56 | 30:05 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 169 | 180 |
| Conversions | 62 | 76 |
| Conversion % | 36.7% | 42.2% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 16 | 21 |
| Conversions | 6 | 14 |
| Conversion % | 37.5% | 66.7% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 38 | 54 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 29 | 45 |
| Score % | 76.3% | 83.3% |
| Touchdowns | 23 | 38 |
| TD % | 60.5% | 70.4% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 16 | 16 |
| Made | 12 | 11 |
| Pct | 75.0% | 68.8% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 32 | 58 |
| Made | 25 | 55 |
| Pct | 78.1% | 94.8% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 1 |
| Made | 1 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.