Fourth Down Data
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ORST

Oregon State

BeaversBalanced
Pac-12 Conference1-11#128 (-21.32)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

4· FOverall
Offense
19· DRating
17· DPer play
36· DConsistency
68· CBig plays
Defense
1· FRating
3· FPer play
1· FConsistency
Situational
83· BRed-zone O
22· DRed-zone D
25· D3rd down O
1· F3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.058
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.168
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.114
Defensive EPA/play
+0.199
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.7%
Def Success Rate
52.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.313
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.157
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.41

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.66
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.33
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-1.14
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.01
own return game
Return Defense
+0.16
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#128
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#57
recruiting 71 spots higher
2 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Oregon State ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
26th
Opp-adjusted defense
5th
Offensive EPA/play
17th
Defensive EPA/play
3th
Offensive success rate
56th
Explosiveness
68th
Defensive havoc
6th
Points per drive
8th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1New Mexico2019OA -0.156 / -0.122similar: offensive EPA, turnover rate, pass defense3602Massachusetts2021OA -0.161 / -0.213similar: defensive success rate, pass defense, offensive EPA3593Wyoming2026OA -0.017 / -0.034similar: run defense, turnover rate, offensive EPA3554UNLV2020OA -0.027 / -0.044similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, run defense3545Texas State2021OA -0.092 / -0.137similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, takeaway rate352

2017 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0@ Colorado State27-58L----
1vs Portland State35-32W-26.0L--
2vs Minnesota14-48L-2.5L50.5O
3@ Washington State23-52L+17.5L65O
5vs Washington7-42L+26.5L59U
6@ USC10-38L+32.5W58U
7vs Colorado33-36L+9.5W56.5O
9vs Stanford14-15L+18.5W56.5U
10@ California23-37L+7.0L54O
11@ Arizona28-49L+20.5L68.5O
12vs Arizona State24-40L+7.0L58.5O
13@ Oregon10-69L+25.5L62O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-8
27.3%
O/U Record
7-3
70.0%
Straight Up
1-10
9.1%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS0-2
Underdog ATS3-6
Last 5 ATS
WLLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off47thRush Off52thRed Zone Off83th3rd Down Off25thPass Def4thRush Def3thRed Zone Def22th3rd Down Def2th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.03346th+0.1893th
Red Zone+0.18483th+0.12122th
Third Down-0.18725th+0.4372th
No Garbage Time-0.09126th+0.1833th
First Half-0.05939th+0.1557th
Second Half-0.00455th+0.2232th
Early Downs-0.02156th+0.1119th
Passing Downs-0.03347th+0.2694th
Standard Downs-0.03452th+0.1523th
Goal to Go-0.06142th-0.04551th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.8%Rush 53.2%
Havoc/Game
9.1
Havoc Rate
12.4%
TO Margin
-1.2
Explosive/G
12.2
Yards/Game
333.8
Pts/Drive
1.41
3rd Down%
40.2%
3&Out%
25.4%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 12 games — Oregon State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOregon StateOpponents
Scoring
Points248516
Points / Game20.743.0
First Downs
Total228314
Rushing95154
Passing106129
Penalty2731
Rushing
Attempts411515
Yards1,6502,829
Yards / Carry4.05.5
Yards / Game137.5235.8
Touchdowns1835
Passing
Attempts362344
Completions214229
Completion %59.1%66.6%
Yards2,3552,848
Yards / Attempt6.58.3
Touchdowns1129
Interceptions127
Passer Rating117.16159.86
Total Offense
Plays773859
Yards4,0055,677
Yards / Play5.26.6
Yards / Game333.8473.1
Punt Returns
Returns68
Yards3544
Average5.85.5
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns5736
Yards1,166680
Average20.518.9
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6030
Yards2,2801,302
Average38.043.4
Interception Returns
Returns712
Yards49169
Touchdowns12
Fumbles
Fumbles2115
Lost167
Penalties
Penalties8475
Yards816724
Yards / Game68.060.3
Time of Possession
Per Game29:1230:48
Third Downs
Attempts164156
Conversions6683
Conversion %40.2%53.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1315
Conversions811
Conversion %61.5%73.3%
Red Zone
Trips3565
Scores (TD + FG)3158
Score %88.6%89.2%
Touchdowns2248
TD %62.9%73.8%
Field Goals
Attempts1920
Made1216
Pct63.2%80.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3062
Made3060
Pct100.0%96.8%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts05
Made02
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →