Fourth Down Data
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MASS

Massachusetts

MinutemenBalanced
Mid-American Conference1-11#134 (-16.50)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

0· FOverall
Offense
3· FRating
16· DPer play
21· DConsistency
40· CBig plays
Defense
0· FRating
1· FPer play
4· FConsistency
Situational
20· DRed-zone O
10· FRed-zone D
37· D3rd down O
1· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.161
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.213
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.122
Defensive EPA/play
+0.218
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.4%
Def Success Rate
53.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
30.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.340
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.087
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.47

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-2.03
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.03
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.47
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-1.32
own return game
Return Defense
-0.28
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#134
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#130
market 4 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
recruiting 62 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Massachusetts ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
4th
Opp-adjusted defense
2th
Offensive EPA/play
16th
Defensive EPA/play
2th
Offensive success rate
23th
Explosiveness
41th
Defensive havoc
3th
Points per drive
11th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Colorado2022OA -0.222 / -0.093similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, offensive success rate3782Oregon State2017OA -0.058 / -0.168similar: defensive success rate, pass defense, offensive EPA3593New Mexico2019OA -0.156 / -0.122similar: offensive EPA, pass defense, TD drive rate3524Hawai'i2022OA -0.087 / -0.155similar: TD drive rate, offensive success rate, run defense3485UConn2019OA -0.151 / -0.176similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, defensive success rate346

2021 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Pittsburgh7-51L+38.0L56O
2vs Boston College28-45L+37.5W59.5O
3vs Eastern Michigan28-42L+22.0W56O
4@ Coastal Carolina3-53L+36.0L65.5U
5vs Toledo7-45L+27.0L56.5U
6vs UConn27-13W+3.5W57U
8@ Florida State3-59L+35.5L60O
9@ Liberty17-62L+36.0L57.5O
10vs Rhode Island22-35L----
11vs Maine10-35L----
12@ Army17-33L+37.0W56U
13@ New Mexico State27-44L+6.5L58.75O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-6
40.0%
O/U Record
6-4
60.0%
Straight Up
1-11
8.3%
Home ATS3-1
Away ATS1-5
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS4-6
Last 5 ATS
LWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off65thRush Off5thRed Zone Off20th3rd Down Off38thPass Def1thRush Def4thRed Zone Def10th3rd Down Def2th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.08520th+0.2100th
Red Zone-0.17320th+0.19410th
Third Down+0.01538th+0.6452th
No Garbage Time-0.14513th+0.2241th
First Half-0.2452th+0.2881th
Second Half+0.09287th+0.1338th
Early Downs-0.12912th+0.1255th
Passing Downs+0.04765th+0.3081th
Standard Downs-0.1615th+0.1664th
Goal to Go-0.30914th+0.25913th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 44.4%Rush 55.6%
Havoc/Game
8.3
Havoc Rate
12.2%
TO Margin
-0.8
Explosive/G
11.5
Yards/Game
299.7
Pts/Drive
1.47
3rd Down%
33.5%
3&Out%
26.5%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 12 games — Massachusetts vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMassachusettsOpponents
Scoring
Points196517
Points / Game16.343.1
First Downs
Total196286
Rushing91143
Passing81116
Penalty2427
Rushing
Attempts416487
Yards1,7642,825
Yards / Carry4.25.8
Yards / Game147.0235.4
Touchdowns1443
Passing
Attempts332307
Completions163198
Completion %49.1%64.5%
Yards1,8322,995
Yards / Attempt5.59.8
Touchdowns1124
Interceptions112
Passer Rating99.76170.94
Total Offense
Plays748794
Yards3,5965,820
Yards / Play4.87.3
Yards / Game299.7485.0
Punt Returns
Returns927
Yards66186
Average7.36.9
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2920
Yards471443
Average16.222.1
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts6533
Yards2,8641,324
Average44.140.1
Interception Returns
Returns211
Yards12188
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles1714
Lost99
Penalties
Penalties7576
Yards734700
Yards / Game61.258.3
Time of Possession
Per Game29:4529:44
Third Downs
Attempts158139
Conversions5372
Conversion %33.5%51.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2520
Conversions1111
Conversion %44.0%55.0%
Red Zone
Trips3562
Scores (TD + FG)2453
Score %68.6%85.5%
Touchdowns1846
TD %51.4%74.2%
Field Goals
Attempts1113
Made89
Pct72.7%69.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2468
Made2264
Pct91.7%94.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts12
Made02
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →