Fourth Down Data
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NMSU

New Mexico State

AggiesRun-Heavy
Conference USA3-9#130 (-10.92)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

4· FOverall
Offense
6· FRating
16· DPer play
25· DConsistency
30· DBig plays
Defense
11· FRating
18· DPer play
27· DConsistency
Situational
47· CRed-zone O
13· FRed-zone D
8· F3rd down O
10· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.045
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.045
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.095
Defensive EPA/play
+0.072
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.0%
Def Success Rate
47.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.167
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.134
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.66

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.20
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.15
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.80
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.12
own return game
Return Defense
-0.13
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#130
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#128
market 2 higher
Recruiting Rank
#80
recruiting 50 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where New Mexico State ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
12th
Opp-adjusted defense
13th
Offensive EPA/play
16th
Defensive EPA/play
18th
Offensive success rate
37th
Explosiveness
30th
Defensive havoc
1th
Points per drive
13th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1New Mexico2019OA -0.156 / -0.122similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, rushing offense3912Colorado2022OA -0.222 / -0.093similar: havoc rate, passing offense, run defense3903Texas State2021OA -0.092 / -0.137similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, run defense3534Virginia Tech2025OA -0.015 / -0.060similar: TD drive rate, takeaway rate, defensive success rate3515Hawai'i2022OA -0.087 / -0.155similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, offensive EPA345

2024 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Southeast Missouri State23-16W-8.5L52.5U
2vs Liberty24-30L+20.5W57U
3@ Fresno State0-48L+19.5L47.5O
4@ Sam Houston11-31L+16.5L44.5U
5vs New Mexico40-50L+9.0L54.5O
7@ Jacksonville State13-54L+11.5W49.5O
8vs Louisiana Tech33-30W----
10@ Florida International13-34L----
11vs Western Kentucky28-41L+18.0W52O
12@ Texas A&M3-38L+39.5W54U
13@ Middle Tennessee36-21W+3.5W52O
14vs UTEP35-42L-3.0L51.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
8-4
66.7%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS0-2
Underdog ATS5-5
Last 5 ATS
LWWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off14thRush Off34thRed Zone Off48th3rd Down Off8thPass Def13thRush Def33thRed Zone Def13th3rd Down Def10th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.08815th+0.07715th
Red Zone+0.00848th+0.17313th
Third Down-0.1878th+0.31810th
No Garbage Time-0.09516th+0.07716th
First Half-0.14713th+0.05027th
Second Half-0.02633th+0.10715th
Early Downs-0.00954th+0.07611th
Passing Downs-0.17014th+0.15713th
Standard Downs-0.03834th+0.03733th
Goal to Go+0.17669th+0.2856th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 39.3%Rush 60.7%
Havoc/Game
9.0
Havoc Rate
12.4%
TO Margin
-1.1
Explosive/G
13.4
Yards/Game
323.2
Pts/Drive
1.66
3rd Down%
38.5%
3&Out%
26.6%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 12 games — New Mexico State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNew Mexico StateOpponents
Scoring
Points259435
Points / Game21.636.3
First Downs
Total232255
Rushing111112
Passing87124
Penalty3419
Rushing
Attempts495459
Yards2,1602,343
Yards / Carry4.45.1
Yards / Game180.0195.3
Touchdowns1629
Passing
Attempts320381
Completions141220
Completion %44.1%57.7%
Yards1,7183,019
Yards / Attempt5.47.9
Touchdowns1221
Interceptions129
Passer Rating94.03137.77
Total Offense
Plays815840
Yards3,8785,362
Yards / Play4.86.4
Yards / Game323.2446.8
Punt Returns
Returns1227
Yards60328
Average5.012.1
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns3913
Yards762305
Average19.523.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6350
Yards2,8022,054
Average44.541.1
Interception Returns
Returns912
Yards41152
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1910
Lost111
Penalties
Penalties6584
Yards577907
Yards / Game48.175.6
Time of Possession
Per Game29:2030:40
Third Downs
Attempts182177
Conversions7079
Conversion %38.5%44.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1623
Conversions613
Conversion %37.5%56.5%
Red Zone
Trips3046
Scores (TD + FG)2642
Score %86.7%91.3%
Touchdowns1830
TD %60.0%65.2%
Field Goals
Attempts2423
Made1819
Pct75.0%82.6%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2351
Made2350
Pct100.0%98.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts53
Made31
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →