Fourth Down Data
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ALA

Alabama

Crimson TideRun-Heavy
Southeastern Conference1-0#18 (+7.48)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

87· BOverall
Offense
97· A+Rating
91· A-Per play
87· BConsistency
64· CBig plays
Defense
48· CRating
51· CPer play
40· CConsistency
Situational
56· CRed-zone O
51· CRed-zone D
85· B3rd down O
97· A+3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.051
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.001
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.332
Defensive EPA/play
-0.094
lower = better
Off Success Rate
54.3%
Def Success Rate
34.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
18.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.426
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
6.20

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.11
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.21
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.25
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.09
own return game
Return Defense
+0.03
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#18
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 8 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where Alabama ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
87th
Opp-adjusted defense
52th
Offensive EPA/play
92th
Defensive EPA/play
52th
Offensive success rate
75th
Explosiveness
64th
Defensive havoc
75th
Points per drive
98th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Notre Dame2020OA +0.039 / +0.035similar: rushing offense, defensive success rate, takeaway rate3372App State2022OA +0.021 / +0.003similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, offensive success rate3313BYU2025OA +0.104 / +0.062similar: defensive success rate, takeaway rate, rushing offense3314Memphis2025OA +0.037 / +0.005similar: havoc rate, defensive EPA, TD drive rate3305Ohio State2017OA +0.212 / +0.167similar: offensive EPA, run defense, pass defense328

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs East Carolina48-10W-28.0W52.5O
2@ Kentucky------
3vs Florida State------
4vs South Carolina------
5@ Mississippi State------
6vs Georgia------
7@ Tennessee------
8vs Texas A&M------
10@ LSU------
11@ Vanderbilt------
12vs Chattanooga------
13vs Auburn------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-0
100.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS1-0
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
W
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off72thRush Off34thRed Zone Off56th3rd Down Off86thPass Def94thRush Def20thRed Zone Def51th3rd Down Def98th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.06453th-0.22676th
Red Zone+0.14856th-0.12351th
Third Down+0.74686th-1.17298th
No Garbage Time+0.33293th-0.08850th
First Half+0.33291th-0.08845th
Second Half-0.27113th-0.32385th
Early Downs-0.08131th+0.20514th
Passing Downs+0.33672th-0.59594th
Standard Downs-0.05034th+0.09320th
Goal to Go-0.10730th+0.65731th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 39.5%Rush 60.5%
Havoc/Game
11.0
Havoc Rate
26.2%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
11.0
Yards/Game
487.0
Pts/Drive
6.20
3rd Down%
53.3%
3&Out%
0.0%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Alabama vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatAlabamaOpponents
Scoring
Points4810
Points / Game48.010.0
First Downs
Total285
Rushing151
Passing94
Penalty40
Rushing
Attempts4922
Yards2272
Yards / Carry4.60.1
Yards / Game227.02.0
Touchdowns50
Passing
Attempts3219
Completions1911
Completion %59.4%57.9%
Yards260160
Yards / Attempt8.18.4
Touchdowns01
Interceptions01
Passer Rating127.63135.47
Total Offense
Plays8141
Yards487162
Yards / Play6.04.0
Yards / Game487.0162.0
Punt Returns
Returns31
Yards270
Average9.00.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns20
Yards390
Average19.5—
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts28
Yards104377
Average52.047.1
Interception Returns
Returns10
Yards270
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles22
Lost10
Penalties
Penalties67
Yards2961
Yards / Game29.061.0
Time of Possession
Per Game38:5321:07
Third Downs
Attempts159
Conversions80
Conversion %53.3%0.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts10
Conversions10
Conversion %100.0%—
Red Zone
Trips62
Scores (TD + FG)62
Score %100.0%100.0%
Touchdowns51
TD %83.3%50.0%
Field Goals
Attempts21
Made21
Pct100.0%100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts61
Made61
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →