Fourth Down Data
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TENN

Tennessee

VolunteersRun-Heavy
Southeastern Conference1-0#35 (+5.32)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

74· BOverall
Offense
64· CRating
68· CPer play
77· BConsistency
85· BBig plays
Defense
81· BRating
89· BPer play
83· BConsistency
Situational
81· BRed-zone O
57· C3rd down O
31· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.011
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.057
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.195
Defensive EPA/play
-0.500
lower = better
Off Success Rate
58.1%
Def Success Rate
34.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
29.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
0.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.695
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
4.67

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.31
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.15
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.37
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.13
own return game
Return Defense
+0.04
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Tennessee ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
54th
Opp-adjusted defense
86th
Offensive EPA/play
69th
Defensive EPA/play
90th
Offensive success rate
85th
Explosiveness
86th
Defensive havoc
98th
Points per drive
77th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Toledo2023OA +0.030 / +0.045similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, offensive EPA3692Texas A&M2024OA +0.023 / +0.028similar: turnover rate, rushing offense, defensive success rate3543Michigan2018OA +0.092 / +0.163similar: takeaway rate, defensive EPA, offensive EPA3494Notre Dame2018OA +0.118 / +0.129similar: defensive EPA, run defense, defensive success rate3485UTSA2023OA -0.019 / -0.006similar: rushing offense, takeaway rate, havoc rate346

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Furman56-9W-48.5L66.5U
2@ Georgia Tech------
3vs Kennesaw State------
4vs Texas------
5vs Auburn------
6@ Arkansas------
7vs Alabama------
8@ South Carolina------
10vs Kentucky------
11@ Texas A&M------
12vs LSU------
13@ Vanderbilt------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
0-1
0.0%
O/U Record
0-1
0.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS0-1
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
L
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off63thRush Off61thRed Zone Off82th3rd Down Off58thPass Def36thRush Def99thRed Zone Def0th3rd Down Def31th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.11567th-0.37193th
Red Zone+0.45282th-0th
Third Down+0.19058th+0.15531th
No Garbage Time+0.19572th-0.50093th
First Half+0.19571th-0.50091th
Second Half-0.00245th-0.24173th
Early Downs+0.12571th-0.47493th
Passing Downs+0.22463th+0.05136th
Standard Downs+0.08261th-0.69099th
Goal to Go+0.36155th-0th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 36.5%Rush 63.5%
Havoc/Game
24.0
Havoc Rate
40.7%
TO Margin
-2.0
Explosive/G
13.0
Yards/Game
638.0
Pts/Drive
4.67
3rd Down%
45.5%
3&Out%
0.0%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Tennessee vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTennesseeOpponents
Scoring
Points569
Points / Game56.09.0
First Downs
Total2910
Rushing159
Passing130
Penalty11
Rushing
Attempts4736
Yards329177
Yards / Carry7.04.9
Yards / Game329.0177.0
Touchdowns41
Passing
Attempts2722
Completions2111
Completion %77.8%50.0%
Yards30943
Yards / Attempt11.42.0
Touchdowns40
Interceptions00
Passer Rating222.8066.42
Total Offense
Plays7458
Yards638220
Yards / Play8.63.8
Yards / Game638.0220.0
Punt Returns
Returns10
Yards120
Average12.0—
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns23
Yards4351
Average21.517.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts28
Yards89333
Average44.541.6
Interception Returns
Returns00
Yards00
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles21
Lost20
Penalties
Penalties75
Yards6045
Yards / Game60.045.0
Time of Possession
Per Game32:0227:51
Third Downs
Attempts1115
Conversions54
Conversion %45.5%26.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts32
Conversions20
Conversion %66.7%0.0%
Red Zone
Trips40
Scores (TD + FG)40
Score %100.0%—
Touchdowns40
TD %100.0%—
Field Goals
Attempts01
Made01
Pct—100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts80
Made80
Pct100.0%—
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts01
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →