Fourth Down Data
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UVA

Virginia

CavaliersRun-Heavy
Atlantic Coast Conference1-0#60 (+2.39)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

56· COverall
Offense
51· CRating
53· CPer play
69· CConsistency
43· CBig plays
Defense
65· CRating
79· BPer play
66· CConsistency
Situational
78· BRed-zone O
98· A+Red-zone D
7· F3rd down O
38· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.006
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.050
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.089
Defensive EPA/play
-0.318
lower = better
Off Success Rate
51.5%
Def Success Rate
37.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
15.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.408
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.10

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.59
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.10
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.37
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.13
own return game
Return Defense
-0.19
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Virginia ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
51th
Opp-adjusted defense
82th
Offensive EPA/play
54th
Defensive EPA/play
80th
Offensive success rate
65th
Explosiveness
43th
Defensive havoc
81th
Points per drive
55th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Penn State2022OA +0.105 / +0.152similar: run defense, takeaway rate, defensive success rate3612Troy2023OA -0.020 / +0.169similar: rushing offense, pass defense, TD drive rate3613Notre Dame2021OA +0.071 / +0.132similar: takeaway rate, rushing offense, defensive success rate3594Temple2026OA -0.015 / -0.007similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, offensive success rate3395South Carolina2024OA -0.002 / +0.053similar: havoc rate, TD drive rate, takeaway rate336

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0vs NC State34-8W-4.0W51U
2vs Norfolk State------
3vs West Virginia------
4vs Delaware------
5@ Florida State------
6vs Syracuse------
7@ SMU------
8vs Duke------
9@ Wake Forest------
11vs California------
12vs North Carolina------
13@ Virginia Tech------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-0
100.0%
O/U Record
0-1
0.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS1-0
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
W
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off19thRush Off69thRed Zone Off78th3rd Down Off7thPass Def85thRush Def82thRed Zone Def99th3rd Down Def39th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.04045th-0.36791th
Red Zone+0.37378th-1.44499th
Third Down-0.7947th+0.02939th
No Garbage Time+0.08957th-0.31881th
First Half-0.01839th-0.67495th
Second Half+0.09555th-0.04848th
Early Downs+0.11369th-0.35185th
Passing Downs-0.22219th-0.41085th
Standard Downs+0.12169th-0.34082th
Goal to Go+0.42261th+1.05816th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 16.2%Rush 83.8%
Havoc/Game
15.0
Havoc Rate
28.8%
TO Margin
+2.0
Explosive/G
14.0
Yards/Game
413.0
Pts/Drive
3.10
3rd Down%
21.4%
3&Out%
10.0%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Virginia vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatVirginiaOpponents
Scoring
Points348
Points / Game34.08.0
First Downs
Total1910
Rushing153
Passing45
Penalty02
Rushing
Attempts5724
Yards25876
Yards / Carry4.53.2
Yards / Game258.076.0
Touchdowns21
Passing
Attempts1127
Completions915
Completion %81.8%55.6%
Yards15592
Yards / Attempt14.13.4
Touchdowns20
Interceptions01
Passer Rating260.1876.77
Total Offense
Plays6851
Yards413168
Yards / Play6.13.3
Yards / Game413.0168.0
Punt Returns
Returns12
Yards032
Average0.016.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns02
Yards054
Average—27.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts57
Yards227327
Average45.446.7
Interception Returns
Returns10
Yards00
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles01
Lost01
Penalties
Penalties52
Yards5113
Yards / Game51.013.0
Time of Possession
Per Game38:0321:57
Third Downs
Attempts1413
Conversions34
Conversion %21.4%30.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts41
Conversions40
Conversion %100.0%0.0%
Red Zone
Trips22
Scores (TD + FG)21
Score %100.0%50.0%
Touchdowns21
TD %100.0%50.0%
Field Goals
Attempts20
Made20
Pct100.0%—
PAT Kicking
Attempts40
Made40
Pct100.0%—
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts01
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →