Fourth Down Data
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SAC

Sacramento State

HornetsBalanced
Mid-American1-4#122 (-4.54)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

12· FOverall
Offense
1· FRating
1· FPer play
34· DConsistency
3· FBig plays
Defense
20· DRating
32· DPer play
48· CConsistency
Situational
5· FRed-zone O
34· DRed-zone D
7· F3rd down O
66· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.055
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.010
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.312
Defensive EPA/play
+0.031
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.9%
Def Success Rate
43.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
18.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.343
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.026
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.16

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.03
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.02
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+1.04
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.06
own return game
Return Defense
+0.08
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Sacramento State ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
0th
Opp-adjusted defense
28th
Offensive EPA/play
1th
Defensive EPA/play
32th
Offensive success rate
44th
Explosiveness
3th
Defensive havoc
12th
Points per drive
1th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Indiana2021OA -0.067 / -0.003similar: passing offense, takeaway rate, turnover rate3922Virginia2024OA -0.035 / -0.006similar: havoc rate, pass defense, run defense3843Kansas2017OA -0.077 / -0.050similar: takeaway rate, rushing offense, TD drive rate3634Texas State2017OA -0.190 / -0.057similar: takeaway rate, run defense, rushing offense3575Michigan State2023OA -0.078 / -0.038similar: rushing offense, passing offense, offensive EPA353

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0@ Eastern Michigan17-28L+9.0L53.5U
1vs Mississippi Valley State52-0W----
2@ Fresno State3-49L+17.5L44.5O
3vs North Dakota State10-31L+26.5W50.5U
4vs Massachusetts6-35L+4.5L49U
6@ Bowling Green------
7vs Ohio------
8@ Ball State------
9vs Kent State------
10vs Toledo------
11@ Central Michigan------
13@ Hawai'i------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-3
25.0%
O/U Record
1-3
25.0%
Straight Up
1-4
20.0%
Home ATS1-1
Away ATS0-2
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS1-3
Last 5 ATS
LLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against pre-game consensus lines. Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently at sources that use a different line.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off1thRush Off10thRed Zone Off5th3rd Down Off7thPass Def64thRush Def31thRed Zone Def34th3rd Down Def66th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.1921th-0.02245th
Red Zone-0.5165th+0.07034th
Third Down-0.3297th-0.11966th
No Garbage Time-0.3180th+0.02731th
First Half-0.3761th+0.04625th
Second Half-0.01142th-0.12677th
Early Downs-0.13012th+0.10210th
Passing Downs-0.3411th-0.07564th
Standard Downs-0.11710th+0.00931th
Goal to Go-0.14727th+0.11646th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 55.4%Rush 44.6%
Havoc/Game
8.4
Havoc Rate
13.9%
TO Margin
-1.8
Explosive/G
8.0
Yards/Game
327.4
Pts/Drive
1.16
3rd Down%
36.6%
3&Out%
27.9%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 5 games — Sacramento State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSacramento StateOpponents
Scoring
Points88143
Points / Game17.628.6
First Downs
Total9785
Rushing4130
Passing4743
Penalty912
Rushing
Attempts152168
Yards556750
Yards / Carry3.74.5
Yards / Game111.2150.0
Touchdowns411
Passing
Attempts189128
Completions10887
Completion %57.1%68.0%
Yards1,081982
Yards / Attempt5.77.7
Touchdowns56
Interceptions60
Passer Rating107.57147.88
Total Offense
Plays341296
Yards1,6371,732
Yards / Play4.85.9
Yards / Game327.4346.4
Punt Returns
Returns63
Yards566
Average9.32.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns59
Yards86112
Average17.212.4
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts2427
Yards973892
Average40.533.0
Interception Returns
Returns06
Yards079
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles75
Lost52
Penalties
Penalties3531
Yards325291
Yards / Game65.058.2
Time of Possession
Per Game30:1029:50
Third Downs
Attempts7160
Conversions2620
Conversion %36.6%33.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts105
Conversions40
Conversion %40.0%0.0%
Red Zone
Trips1514
Scores (TD + FG)1112
Score %73.3%85.7%
Touchdowns510
TD %33.3%71.4%
Field Goals
Attempts86
Made63
Pct75.0%50.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts1018
Made1018
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts01
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →