Fourth Down Data
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PITT

Pittsburgh

PanthersPass-Heavy
Atlantic Coast Conference1-0#44 (+4.72)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

68· COverall
Offense
87· BRating
90· A-Per play
64· CConsistency
16· DBig plays
Defense
36· DRating
21· DPer play
82· BConsistency
Situational
28· DRed-zone O
9· FRed-zone D
97· A+3rd down O
85· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.053
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.043
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.325
Defensive EPA/play
+0.113
lower = better
Off Success Rate
56.0%
Def Success Rate
34.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
17.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.212
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
5.00

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.04
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.06
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.15
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.01
own return game
Return Defense
-0.23
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Pittsburgh ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
89th
Opp-adjusted defense
18th
Offensive EPA/play
91th
Defensive EPA/play
21th
Offensive success rate
81th
Explosiveness
16th
Defensive havoc
34th
Points per drive
84th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Wake Forest2022OA +0.103 / -0.002similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, pass defense3252SMU2021OA +0.036 / +0.011similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, offensive EPA3253Minnesota2026OA +0.038 / -0.048similar: offensive EPA, run defense, TD drive rate3204Georgia Tech2024OA +0.026 / -0.008similar: offensive success rate, pass defense, defensive EPA3125Baylor2024OA +0.032 / -0.011similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, passing offense311

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Miami (OH)59-14W-16.5W47.5O
2vs UCF------
3vs Syracuse------
4vs Bucknell------
5@ Virginia Tech------
6vs North Carolina------
7@ Boston College------
8@ Miami------
9vs Georgia Tech------
11vs Florida State------
12@ Louisville------
13@ California------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-0
100.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS1-0
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
W
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off91thRush Off73thRed Zone Off28th3rd Down Off98thPass Def58thRush Def18thRed Zone Def9th3rd Down Def86th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.27389th-0.01740th
Red Zone-0.19028th+0.8199th
Third Down+1.12398th-0.70286th
No Garbage Time+0.32591th+0.11320th
First Half+0.24175th+0.17316th
Second Half+0.30885th-0.30780th
Early Downs+0.18377th+0.2438th
Passing Downs+0.58291th-0.15058th
Standard Downs+0.13773th+0.11518th
Goal to Go+0.43964th+0.81925th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 58.7%Rush 41.3%
Havoc/Game
9.0
Havoc Rate
15.3%
TO Margin
+1.0
Explosive/G
9.0
Yards/Game
646.0
Pts/Drive
5.00
3rd Down%
70.0%
3&Out%
22.2%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Pittsburgh vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatPittsburghOpponents
Scoring
Points5914
Points / Game59.014.0
First Downs
Total3314
Rushing93
Passing2110
Penalty31
Rushing
Attempts3121
Yards16627
Yards / Carry5.41.3
Yards / Game166.027.0
Touchdowns11
Passing
Attempts4437
Completions3419
Completion %77.3%51.4%
Yards480262
Yards / Attempt10.97.1
Touchdowns71
Interceptions01
Passer Rating221.41114.35
Total Offense
Plays7558
Yards646289
Yards / Play8.65.0
Yards / Game646.0289.0
Punt Returns
Returns21
Yards15-2
Average7.5-2.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns23
Yards55107
Average27.535.7
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts28
Yards106335
Average53.041.9
Interception Returns
Returns10
Yards00
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles10
Lost00
Penalties
Penalties59
Yards3878
Yards / Game38.078.0
Time of Possession
Per Game33:5626:04
Third Downs
Attempts1013
Conversions73
Conversion %70.0%23.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts11
Conversions01
Conversion %0.0%100.0%
Red Zone
Trips41
Scores (TD + FG)21
Score %50.0%100.0%
Touchdowns21
TD %50.0%100.0%
Field Goals
Attempts10
Made10
Pct100.0%—
PAT Kicking
Attempts82
Made82
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →