Fourth Down Data
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UNM

New Mexico

LobosRun-Heavy
Mountain West Conference1-0#21 (+6.96)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

85· BOverall
Offense
69· CRating
65· CPer play
82· BConsistency
6· FBig plays
Defense
90· A-Rating
90· A-Per play
91· A-Consistency
Situational
76· BRed-zone O
72· B3rd down O
80· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.017
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.073
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.146
Defensive EPA/play
-0.550
lower = better
Off Success Rate
55.1%
Def Success Rate
31.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
14.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
8.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.696
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.86

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.04
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.05
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.07
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.09
own return game
Return Defense
-0.03
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#21
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 5 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where New Mexico ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
61th
Opp-adjusted defense
92th
Offensive EPA/play
66th
Defensive EPA/play
91th
Offensive success rate
76th
Explosiveness
6th
Defensive havoc
74th
Points per drive
65th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Auburn2019OA -0.022 / +0.217similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, havoc rate3862Clemson2022OA +0.026 / +0.116similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, defensive EPA3763Iowa2018OA +0.039 / +0.179similar: pass defense, havoc rate, TD drive rate3724Syracuse2018OA +0.008 / +0.062similar: havoc rate, rushing offense, offensive success rate3695Houston2025OA +0.036 / +0.057similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, defensive EPA369

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Central Michigan38-7W-10.5W47.5U
2vs Mercyhurst------
3@ Oklahoma------
4@ New Mexico State------
5vs UTEP------
7@ Hawai'i------
8vs North Dakota State------
9@ San José State------
10@ Nevada------
11vs UNLV------
12@ Wyoming------
13vs Air Force------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-0
100.0%
O/U Record
0-1
0.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS1-0
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
W
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off40thRush Off74thRed Zone Off77th3rd Down Off73thPass Def77thRush Def58thRed Zone Def0th3rd Down Def81th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.08760th-0.21070th
Red Zone+0.37077th-0th
Third Down+0.45873th-0.50481th
No Garbage Time+0.14666th-0.55095th
First Half+0.10255th-0.60393th
Second Half+0.05752th+0.02736th
Early Downs+0.03753th-0.26978th
Passing Downs-0.04740th-0.30477th
Standard Downs+0.14274th-0.13758th
Goal to Go+0.34050th-0th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 36.2%Rush 63.8%
Havoc/Game
13.0
Havoc Rate
26.0%
TO Margin
+2.0
Explosive/G
8.0
Yards/Game
364.0
Pts/Drive
3.86
3rd Down%
53.8%
3&Out%
14.3%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — New Mexico vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNew MexicoOpponents
Scoring
Points387
Points / Game38.07.0
First Downs
Total289
Rushing127
Passing92
Penalty70
Rushing
Attempts4432
Yards205119
Yards / Carry4.73.7
Yards / Game205.0119.0
Touchdowns31
Passing
Attempts2516
Completions177
Completion %68.0%43.8%
Yards15930
Yards / Attempt6.41.9
Touchdowns10
Interceptions01
Passer Rating134.6247.00
Total Offense
Plays6948
Yards364149
Yards / Play5.33.1
Yards / Game364.0149.0
Punt Returns
Returns20
Yards470
Average23.5—
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns00
Yards00
Average——
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts26
Yards81306
Average40.551.0
Interception Returns
Returns10
Yards00
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles11
Lost01
Penalties
Penalties49
Yards2084
Yards / Game20.084.0
Time of Possession
Per Game37:2922:31
Third Downs
Attempts1311
Conversions72
Conversion %53.8%18.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts13
Conversions12
Conversion %100.0%66.7%
Red Zone
Trips40
Scores (TD + FG)40
Score %100.0%—
Touchdowns40
TD %100.0%—
Field Goals
Attempts40
Made30
Pct75.0%—
PAT Kicking
Attempts31
Made31
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts10
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →