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AF
Air Force
FalconsRun-HeavyMountain West Conference1-0#56 (+2.61)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
59· COverall
Offense
38· DRating
42· CPer play
51· CConsistency
35· DBig plays
Defense
81· BRating
85· BPer play
66· CConsistency
Situational
61· CRed-zone O
70· B3rd down O
87· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.032
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.050
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.027
Defensive EPA/play
-0.452
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.0%
Def Success Rate
34.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
0.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.479
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.86
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.37
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.35
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.47
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.22
own return game
Return Defense
-0.02
vs opponent returns
Peer Context
Where Air Force ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense22th
Opp-adjusted defense82th
Offensive EPA/play42th
Defensive EPA/play85th
Offensive success rate55th
Explosiveness35th
Defensive havoc64th
Points per drive65th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Iowa2026OA +0.010 / +0.089similar: pass defense, turnover rate, rushing offense3212James Madison2024OA -0.011 / +0.047similar: TD drive rate, turnover rate, defensive EPA3203Cincinnati2019OA +0.024 / +0.099similar: defensive success rate, offensive success rate, defensive EPA3204Iowa2020OA -0.010 / +0.063similar: pass defense, takeaway rate, havoc rate3165Boise State2022OA -0.051 / +0.066similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, offensive EPA311
2026 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Duquesne | 34-0 | W | -31.5 | W | 55.5 | U |
| 2 | vs North Dakota State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 4 | @ Nevada | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 5 | vs Navy | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 6 | @ Northern Illinois | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 7 | vs UNLV | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 8 | @ Wyoming | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 9 | vs UConn | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 10 | @ Army | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 11 | vs San José State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 12 | vs UTEP | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 13 | @ New Mexico | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
1-0
100.0%
O/U Record
0-1
0.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS1-0
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
W
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.071 | 57th | -0.408 | 95th |
| Red Zone | +0.189 | 62th | - | 0th |
| Third Down | +0.407 | 71th | -0.744 | 88th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.027 | 43th | -0.398 | 87th |
| First Half | +0.049 | 50th | -0.469 | 88th |
| Second Half | +0.097 | 57th | -0.355 | 89th |
| Early Downs | +0.036 | 52th | -0.189 | 67th |
| Passing Downs | -0.288 | 17th | -0.355 | 81th |
| Standard Downs | +0.187 | 82th | -0.447 | 93th |
| Goal to Go | +0.061 | 32th | - | 0th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 9.0%Rush 91.0%
Havoc/Game
10.0
Havoc Rate
23.3%
TO Margin
+2.0
Explosive/G
12.0
Yards/Game
450.0
Pts/Drive
3.86
3rd Down%
60.0%
3&Out%
28.6%
Team Statistics
2026 season totals across 1 games — Air Force vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Air Force | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 34 | 0 |
| Points / Game | 34.0 | 0.0 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 28 | 8 |
| Rushing | 27 | 2 |
| Passing | 1 | 4 |
| Penalty | 0 | 2 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 71 | 21 |
| Yards | 431 | 54 |
| Yards / Carry | 6.1 | 2.6 |
| Yards / Game | 431.0 | 54.0 |
| Touchdowns | 4 | 0 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 7 | 22 |
| Completions | 3 | 9 |
| Completion % | 42.9% | 40.9% |
| Yards | 19 | 53 |
| Yards / Attempt | 2.7 | 2.4 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions | 0 | 2 |
| Passer Rating | 65.66 | 42.96 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 78 | 43 |
| Yards | 450 | 107 |
| Yards / Play | 5.8 | 2.5 |
| Yards / Game | 450.0 | 107.0 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 1 | 0 |
| Yards | 0 | 0 |
| Average | 0.0 | — |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 0 | 0 |
| Yards | 0 | 0 |
| Average | — | — |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 2 | 7 |
| Yards | 113 | 330 |
| Average | 56.5 | 47.1 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 2 | 0 |
| Yards | 26 | 0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 0 | 0 |
| Lost | 0 | 0 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 8 | 4 |
| Yards | 60 | 20 |
| Yards / Game | 60.0 | 20.0 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 40:50 | 19:10 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 15 | 11 |
| Conversions | 9 | 3 |
| Conversion % | 60.0% | 27.3% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 0 |
| Conversions | 2 | 0 |
| Conversion % | 100.0% | — |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 5 | 0 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 5 | 0 |
| Score % | 100.0% | — |
| Touchdowns | 4 | 0 |
| TD % | 80.0% | — |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 0 |
| Made | 2 | 0 |
| Pct | 100.0% | — |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 4 | 0 |
| Made | 4 | 0 |
| Pct | 100.0% | — |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 0 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.