Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
ARMY

Army

Black KnightsRun-Heavy
American Conference6-6#75 (-0.58)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

45· COverall
Offense
62· CRating
70· BPer play
86· BConsistency
44· CBig plays
Defense
29· DRating
28· DPer play
4· FConsistency
Situational
89· BRed-zone O
82· BRed-zone D
58· C3rd down O
26· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.049
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.072
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.057
Defensive EPA/play
+0.038
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.1%
Def Success Rate
51.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.019
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.110
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.61

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.31
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.35
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.84
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.13
own return game
Return Defense
-0.05
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#75
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#53
market 22 higher
Recruiting Rank
#75
model & recruiting agree
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Army ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
70th
Opp-adjusted defense
21th
Offensive EPA/play
70th
Defensive EPA/play
28th
Offensive success rate
85th
Explosiveness
44th
Defensive havoc
18th
Points per drive
77th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Georgia Tech2018OA +0.123 / -0.089similar: run defense, defensive success rate, TD drive rate3562Baylor2022OA +0.078 / -0.009similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, rushing offense3423Oregon State2021OA +0.096 / -0.057similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, run defense3354Minnesota2020OA +0.029 / -0.040similar: rushing offense, defensive success rate, TD drive rate3285Western Michigan2024OA +0.021 / -0.047similar: defensive success rate, takeaway rate, offensive EPA324

2022 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Coastal Carolina28-38L+2.0L53.5O
2vs UTSA38-41L+2.5L54O
3vs Villanova49-10W-11.0W52.5O
5vs Georgia State14-31L-7.5L54.5U
6@ Wake Forest10-45L+16.5L65.5U
7vs Colgate42-17W-28.5L69.5U
8vs UL Monroe48-24W-6.5W55.5O
10vs Air Force7-13L+7.0W40U
11@ Troy9-10L+9.0W46U
12vs UConn34-17W-10.0W43.5O
13@ Massachusetts44-7W-20.0W45O
15vs Navy20-17W+3.0W32O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS5-3
Away ATS2-2
Favorite ATS4-2
Underdog ATS3-3
Last 5 ATS
WWWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off41thRush Off92thRed Zone Off90th3rd Down Off59thPass Def58thRush Def26thRed Zone Def83th3rd Down Def26th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.06873th+0.00938th
Red Zone+0.19090th-0.21983th
Third Down+0.11259th+0.15326th
No Garbage Time+0.05270th+0.03627th
First Half+0.07673th+0.02534th
Second Half+0.06075th-0.00842th
Early Downs+0.05781th+0.03621th
Passing Downs-0.05141th-0.03658th
Standard Downs+0.11692th+0.02926th
Goal to Go+0.26887th-0.50796th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 13.8%Rush 86.2%
Havoc/Game
9.6
Havoc Rate
15.1%
TO Margin
+0.3
Explosive/G
13.1
Yards/Game
366.1
Pts/Drive
2.61
3rd Down%
44.0%
3&Out%
16.7%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 12 games — Army vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatArmyOpponents
Scoring
Points343270
Points / Game28.622.5
First Downs
Total212232
Rushing175125
Passing2793
Penalty1014
Rushing
Attempts648473
Yards3,4732,388
Yards / Carry5.45.0
Yards / Game289.4199.0
Touchdowns3819
Passing
Attempts104275
Completions42167
Completion %40.4%60.7%
Yards9201,920
Yards / Attempt8.87.0
Touchdowns515
Interceptions410
Passer Rating122.87130.10
Total Offense
Plays752748
Yards4,3934,308
Yards / Play5.85.8
Yards / Game366.1359.0
Punt Returns
Returns148
Yards16750
Average11.96.3
Touchdowns30
Kickoff Returns
Returns1224
Yards211387
Average17.616.1
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4443
Yards1,6531,575
Average37.636.6
Interception Returns
Returns104
Yards7422
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1412
Lost86
Penalties
Penalties5865
Yards467494
Yards / Game38.941.2
Time of Possession
Per Game31:3828:22
Third Downs
Attempts159142
Conversions7055
Conversion %44.0%38.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3021
Conversions1610
Conversion %53.3%47.6%
Red Zone
Trips3943
Scores (TD + FG)3433
Score %87.2%76.7%
Touchdowns2725
TD %69.2%58.1%
Field Goals
Attempts1016
Made811
Pct80.0%68.8%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4633
Made4333
Pct93.5%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →