Fourth Down Data
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MINN

Minnesota

Golden GophersRun-Heavy
Big Ten Conference3-4#68 (-0.23)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

47· COverall
Offense
73· BRating
81· BPer play
82· BConsistency
92· A-Big plays
Defense
19· DRating
11· FPer play
2· FConsistency
Situational
60· CRed-zone O
29· DRed-zone D
79· B3rd down O
55· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.029
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.040
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.115
Defensive EPA/play
+0.149
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.3%
Def Success Rate
54.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
28.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.034
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.001
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.56

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.37
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.24
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.57
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.58
own return game
Return Defense
+0.62
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#68
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#55
market 13 higher
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where Minnesota ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
80th
Opp-adjusted defense
9th
Offensive EPA/play
82th
Defensive EPA/play
11th
Offensive success rate
73th
Explosiveness
93th
Defensive havoc
7th
Points per drive
73th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1San José State2023OA +0.068 / -0.050similar: rushing offense, pass defense, defensive EPA3852North Texas2022OA +0.077 / -0.108similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, havoc rate3563BYU2022OA +0.124 / -0.115similar: havoc rate, offensive success rate, turnover rate3474SMU2022OA +0.037 / -0.085similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, run defense3455Georgia Southern2025OA +0.032 / -0.156similar: offensive success rate, defensive success rate, run defense342

2020 Schedule & Results

7 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
8vs Michigan24-49L-19.5L61O
9@ Maryland44-45L----
10@ Illinois41-14W+3.5L58U
11vs Iowa7-35L+1.0W60O
12vs Purdue34-31W----
15@ Nebraska24-17W+8.5W60.75U
16@ Wisconsin17-20L+12.5W47.25U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-3
57.1%
O/U Record
3-4
42.9%
Straight Up
3-4
42.9%
Home ATS1-2
Away ATS3-1
Favorite ATS1-1
Underdog ATS3-2
Last 5 ATS
WLWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off89thRush Off53thRed Zone Off60th3rd Down Off80thPass Def64thRush Def0thRed Zone Def30th3rd Down Def55th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.09174th+0.1587th
Red Zone+0.04660th+0.09430th
Third Down+0.25780th+0.05355th
No Garbage Time+0.10680th+0.14910th
First Half+0.15784th+0.12416th
Second Half+0.02451th+0.1987th
Early Downs-0.01745th+0.1891th
Passing Downs+0.25289th-0.01864th
Standard Downs+0.01153th+0.2300th
Goal to Go-0.14827th+0.10242th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 38.2%Rush 61.8%
Havoc/Game
7.9
Havoc Rate
12.6%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
17.1
Yards/Game
391.0
Pts/Drive
2.56
3rd Down%
47.7%
3&Out%
15.1%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 7 games — Minnesota vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMinnesotaOpponents
Scoring
Points191211
Points / Game27.330.1
First Downs
Total151143
Rushing7169
Passing6664
Penalty1410
Rushing
Attempts298230
Yards1,3431,450
Yards / Carry4.56.3
Yards / Game191.9207.1
Touchdowns1916
Passing
Attempts184192
Completions107123
Completion %58.2%64.1%
Yards1,3941,461
Yards / Attempt7.67.6
Touchdowns711
Interceptions55
Passer Rating128.91141.68
Total Offense
Plays482422
Yards2,7372,911
Yards / Play5.76.9
Yards / Game391.0415.9
Punt Returns
Returns62
Yards217
Average3.53.5
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1521
Yards260300
Average17.314.3
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts2723
Yards977913
Average36.239.7
Interception Returns
Returns55
Yards3394
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles512
Lost22
Penalties
Penalties3243
Yards293439
Yards / Game41.962.7
Time of Possession
Per Game34:0625:54
Third Downs
Attempts8672
Conversions4129
Conversion %47.7%40.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts135
Conversions73
Conversion %53.8%60.0%
Red Zone
Trips3534
Scores (TD + FG)2826
Score %80.0%76.5%
Touchdowns2421
TD %68.6%61.8%
Field Goals
Attempts614
Made45
Pct66.7%35.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2627
Made2326
Pct88.5%96.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts01
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →