Fourth Down Data
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SJSU

San José State

SpartansBalanced
Mountain West Conference7-6#51 (+2.03)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

62· COverall
Offense
81· BRating
84· BPer play
71· BConsistency
89· BBig plays
Defense
30· DRating
12· FPer play
22· DConsistency
Situational
47· CRed-zone O
1· FRed-zone D
94· A3rd down O
7· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.068
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.050
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.118
Defensive EPA/play
+0.096
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.3%
Def Success Rate
47.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.022
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.058
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.76

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.14
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.54
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.10
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.09
own return game
Return Defense
+0.21
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#51
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#69
model 18 higher
Recruiting Rank
#76
model 25 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where San José State ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
79th
Opp-adjusted defense
30th
Offensive EPA/play
85th
Defensive EPA/play
13th
Offensive success rate
61th
Explosiveness
90th
Defensive havoc
27th
Points per drive
85th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Minnesota2020OA +0.029 / -0.040similar: rushing offense, pass defense, defensive EPA3852Florida2022OA +0.127 / -0.042similar: run defense, defensive EPA, offensive success rate3673Florida International2018OA +0.106 / -0.062similar: defensive success rate, TD drive rate, run defense3644BYU2022OA +0.124 / -0.115similar: turnover rate, run defense, defensive EPA3625Oregon2021OA +0.003 / -0.012similar: offensive EPA, havoc rate, defensive success rate357

2023 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0@ USC28-56L+31.0W66.25O
1vs Oregon State17-42L+16.5L54O
2vs Cal Poly59-3W-23.5W--
3@ Toledo17-21L+5.8L46O
4vs Air Force20-45L----
6@ Boise State27-35L+9.5W59O
7@ New Mexico52-24W-8.0W58.5O
8vs Utah State42-21W-4.0W66.5U
9@ Hawai'i35-0W-10.0W60.5U
11vs Fresno State42-18W+1.0W56O
12vs San Diego State24-13W-14.5L49.5U
13@ UNLV37-31W+3.0W58.5O
17vs Coastal Carolina14-24L-10.0L54U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
9-4
69.2%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS6-0
Favorite ATS4-2
Underdog ATS5-2
Last 5 ATS
WWLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off90thRush Off65thRed Zone Off47th3rd Down Off95thPass Def22thRush Def31thRed Zone Def1th3rd Down Def7th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.09882th+0.07618th
Red Zone-0.01847th+0.4531th
Third Down+0.49495th+0.4567th
No Garbage Time+0.09881th+0.07520th
First Half+0.16690th+0.10916th
Second Half+0.02760th+0.04833th
Early Downs-0.01955th-0.07369th
Passing Downs+0.23290th+0.14022th
Standard Downs+0.02565th+0.04231th
Goal to Go-0.16218th+0.4753th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.6%Rush 53.4%
Havoc/Game
11.2
Havoc Rate
16.8%
TO Margin
+0.8
Explosive/G
13.4
Yards/Game
403.5
Pts/Drive
2.76
3rd Down%
45.4%
3&Out%
15.0%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 13 games — San José State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSan José StateOpponents
Scoring
Points414333
Points / Game31.825.6
First Downs
Total270255
Rushing119122
Passing126120
Penalty2513
Rushing
Attempts429486
Yards2,3932,212
Yards / Carry5.64.6
Yards / Game184.1170.2
Touchdowns3123
Passing
Attempts375359
Completions230219
Completion %61.3%61.0%
Yards2,8532,379
Yards / Attempt7.66.6
Touchdowns2119
Interceptions412
Passer Rating141.59127.45
Total Offense
Plays804845
Yards5,2464,591
Yards / Play6.55.4
Yards / Game403.5353.2
Punt Returns
Returns89
Yards15675
Average19.58.3
Touchdowns20
Kickoff Returns
Returns1929
Yards283404
Average14.913.9
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts4451
Yards1,8402,141
Average41.842.0
Interception Returns
Returns124
Yards230120
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1713
Lost69
Penalties
Penalties7480
Yards638730
Yards / Game49.156.2
Time of Possession
Per Game30:3029:30
Third Downs
Attempts152174
Conversions6978
Conversion %45.4%44.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1930
Conversions720
Conversion %36.8%66.7%
Red Zone
Trips5739
Scores (TD + FG)4538
Score %78.9%97.4%
Touchdowns3532
TD %61.4%82.1%
Field Goals
Attempts1511
Made108
Pct66.7%72.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5543
Made5443
Pct98.2%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts01
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →