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TXST
Texas State
BobcatsRun-HeavyPac-12 Conference0-1
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.028
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.032
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.048
Defensive EPA/play
+0.236
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.9%
Def Success Rate
54.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
29.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.188
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.17
Peer Context
Where Texas State ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense69th
Opp-adjusted defense26th
Offensive EPA/play45th
Defensive EPA/play10th
Offensive success rate27th
Explosiveness88th
Defensive havoc47th
Points per drive16th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1UAB2026OA +0.031 / -0.061similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, run defense3212UCLA2019OA -0.012 / -0.052similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, run defense3203Tulsa2023OA -0.037 / -0.092similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, run defense3194Louisiana Tech2021OA -0.043 / -0.064similar: rushing offense, run defense, takeaway rate3195Georgia State2024OA +0.015 / -0.051similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, passing offense318
2026 Schedule & Results
11 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Texas | 7-59 | L | +29.5 | L | 59.5 | O |
| 2 | vs UTSA | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 3 | vs North Texas | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 4 | vs Incarnate Word | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 5 | @ San Diego State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 7 | vs Colorado State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 8 | vs Utah State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 9 | @ Boise State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 10 | @ Oregon State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 11 | vs Fresno State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 12 | vs Washington State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
0-1
0.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
0-1
0.0%
Home ATS0-0
Away ATS0-1
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS0-1
Last 5 ATS
L
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Style & Tendencies
Pass 41.4%Rush 58.6%
Havoc/Game
-
Havoc Rate
18.1%
TO Margin
-
Explosive/G
-
Yards/Game
-
Pts/Drive
1.17
3rd Down%
-
3&Out%
0.0%