Fresno State Bulldogs Football Analytics

FRES

Fresno State

BulldogsRun-Heavy

Pac-12 Conference0-1#110 (-5.82)

Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

20· DOverall

Offense

15· DRating

3· FPer play

30· DConsistency

17· DBig plays

Defense

27· DRating

9· FPer play

2· FConsistency

Situational

1· FRed-zone O

50· CRed-zone D

2· F3rd down O

12· F3rd down D

How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense

-0.060

Opp-Adj Defense

-0.015

higher = better

Offensive EPA/play

-0.494

Defensive EPA/play

+0.258

lower = better

Off Success Rate

45.5%

Def Success Rate

57.4%

allowed · lower = better

Explosive Rate

17.4%

pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8

Explosive Allowed

27.0%

lower = better

Net EPA/play

-0.752

net · higher = better

Recent EPA Trend

0.000

last 3 weeks

Points / Drive

-0.40

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating

+0.43

expected pts/game

Kicking

+0.16

own kicking game

Kick Defense

+0.09

vs opponent kicks

Returns

-0.08

own return game

Return Defense

+0.26

vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Fresno State ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense

12th

Opp-adjusted defense

39th

Offensive EPA/play

3th

Defensive EPA/play

9th

Offensive success rate

37th

Explosiveness

17th

Defensive havoc

8th

Points per drive

0th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UNLV2021OA -0.090 / -0.053similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, havoc rate354 2UL Monroe2023OA -0.193 / -0.034similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, run defense338 3NC State2026OA -0.050 / -0.006similar: offensive EPA, havoc rate, pass defense323 4Rice2018OA -0.165 / -0.155similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, defensive EPA322 5Rutgers2019OA -0.170 / -0.065similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, offensive EPA319

2026 Schedule & Results

11 games

Wk	Opponent	Score	W/L	Spread	ATS	Total	O/U
1	@ USC	0-39	L	+21.5	L	51.5	U
2	vs Sacramento State	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	@ San José State	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	vs Rice	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	@ Washington State	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	vs Boise State	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	@ San Diego State	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	vs Oregon State	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	@ Utah State	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	@ Texas State	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	vs Colorado State	-	-	-	-	-	-

Betting Profile

ATS Record

0-1

0.0%

O/U Record

0-1

0.0%

Straight Up

0-1

0.0%

Home ATS0-0

Away ATS0-1

Favorite ATS0-0

Underdog ATS0-1

Last 5 ATS

Full ATS log & splits →

Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Situation	OFF EPA	OFF Rank	DEF EPA	DEF Rank
Overall	-0.322	5th	+0.154	12th
Red Zone	-1.284	1th	-0.121	50th
Third Down	-1.105	2th	+0.554	12th
No Garbage Time	-0.473	3th	+0.258	9th
First Half	-0.473	5th	+0.258	9th
Second Half	-0.140	27th	+0.031	36th
Early Downs	-0.118	24th	-0.094	49th
Passing Downs	+0.106	55th	+1.058	1th
Standard Downs	-0.566	1th	-0.124	55th
Goal to Go	-1.284	0th	+0.139	65th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 34.1%Rush 65.9%

Havoc/Game

7.0

Havoc Rate

9.6%

TO Margin

0.0

Explosive/G

4.0

Yards/Game

116.0

Pts/Drive

-0.40

3rd Down%

20.0%

3&Out%

20.0%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Fresno State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.

Stat	Fresno State	Opponents
Scoring
Points	0	39
Points / Game	0.0	39.0
First Downs
Total	9	27
Rushing	2	8
Passing	5	19
Penalty	2	0
Rushing
Attempts	29	37
Yards	39	140
Yards / Carry	1.3	3.8
Yards / Game	39.0	140.0
Touchdowns	0	2
Passing
Attempts	15	31
Completions	7	29
Completion %	46.7%	93.5%
Yards	77	412
Yards / Attempt	5.1	13.3
Touchdowns	0	3
Interceptions	1	0
Passer Rating	76.45	237.12
Total Offense
Plays	44	68
Yards	116	552
Yards / Play	2.6	8.1
Yards / Game	116.0	552.0
Punt Returns
Returns	0	3
Yards	0	21
Average	—	7.0
Touchdowns	0	0
Kickoff Returns
Returns	2	3
Yards	23	39
Average	11.5	13.0
Touchdowns	0	0
Punting
Punts	4	1
Yards	162	45
Average	40.5	45.0
Interception Returns
Returns	0	1
Yards	0	0
Touchdowns	0	0
Fumbles
Fumbles	1	3
Lost	1	2
Penalties
Penalties	3	5
Yards	10	44
Yards / Game	10.0	44.0
Time of Possession
Per Game	21:08	38:52
Third Downs
Attempts	10	8
Conversions	2	5
Conversion %	20.0%	62.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts	1	2
Conversions	0	1
Conversion %	0.0%	50.0%
Red Zone
Trips	1	6
Scores (TD + FG)	0	4
Score %	0.0%	66.7%
Touchdowns	0	4
TD %	0.0%	66.7%
Field Goals
Attempts	0	0
Made	0	0
Pct	—	—
PAT Kicking
Attempts	0	5
Made	0	5
Pct	—	100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts	0	0
Made	0	0

Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.

Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →