Fourth Down Data
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TLSA

Tulsa

Golden HurricaneRun-Heavy
American Conference4-8#108 (-4.80)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

21· DOverall
Offense
27· DRating
47· CPer play
26· DConsistency
41· CBig plays
Defense
20· DRating
30· DPer play
70· BConsistency
Situational
50· CRed-zone O
57· CRed-zone D
57· C3rd down O
26· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.037
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.092
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.005
Defensive EPA/play
+0.050
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.8%
Def Success Rate
45.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.045
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.111
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.98

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.57
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.48
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.10
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.01
own return game
Return Defense
+0.02
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#108
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#123
model 15 higher
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where Tulsa ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
30th
Opp-adjusted defense
8th
Offensive EPA/play
47th
Defensive EPA/play
30th
Offensive success rate
24th
Explosiveness
41th
Defensive havoc
10th
Points per drive
40th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Louisiana Tech2021OA -0.043 / -0.064similar: run defense, defensive EPA, rushing offense3212Texas State2026OA +0.028 / -0.032similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, run defense3193UNLV2021OA -0.090 / -0.053similar: turnover rate, havoc rate, defensive EPA3114Middle Tennessee2020OA -0.016 / -0.033similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3095Boston College2025OA -0.019 / -0.094similar: havoc rate, turnover rate, pass defense309

2023 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff42-7W----
2@ Washington10-43L+33.0P65.5U
3vs Oklahoma17-66L+27.5L60O
4@ Northern Illinois22-14W-3.0W55O
5vs Temple48-26W----
6@ Florida Atlantic17-20L+3.5W55.5U
8vs Rice10-42L----
9@ SMU10-69L+21.0L58.5O
10vs Charlotte26-33L-4.0L48O
11@ Tulane22-24L+23.0W53.5U
12vs North Texas28-35L+2.5L66.5U
13@ East Carolina29-27W+3.0W44.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-5-1
50.0%
O/U Record
5-6
45.5%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS1-4
Away ATS4-1
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS4-3
Last 5 ATS
LLWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off49thRush Off50thRed Zone Off50th3rd Down Off58thPass Def34thRush Def21thRed Zone Def58th3rd Down Def27th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.00748th+0.07917th
Red Zone+0.00250th-0.05158th
Third Down+0.22358th+0.27227th
No Garbage Time+0.00247th+0.05726th
First Half+0.00445th+0.09319th
Second Half+0.01152th+0.06330th
Early Downs-0.03947th+0.05416th
Passing Downs+0.05149th+0.08834th
Standard Downs-0.01750th+0.07521th
Goal to Go+0.35996th+0.06041th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 38.8%Rush 61.2%
Havoc/Game
10.8
Havoc Rate
15.5%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
13.8
Yards/Game
385.4
Pts/Drive
1.98
3rd Down%
44.6%
3&Out%
21.9%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 12 games — Tulsa vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTulsaOpponents
Scoring
Points281406
Points / Game23.433.8
First Downs
Total237253
Rushing10696
Passing116142
Penalty1515
Rushing
Attempts527423
Yards2,1691,978
Yards / Carry4.14.7
Yards / Game180.8164.8
Touchdowns1324
Passing
Attempts334388
Completions190250
Completion %56.9%64.4%
Yards2,4563,358
Yards / Attempt7.48.7
Touchdowns2024
Interceptions1910
Passer Rating127.04152.39
Total Offense
Plays861811
Yards4,6255,336
Yards / Play5.46.6
Yards / Game385.4444.7
Punt Returns
Returns620
Yards67150
Average11.27.5
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1541
Yards320877
Average21.321.4
Touchdowns02
Punting
Punts5948
Yards2,4791,924
Average42.040.1
Interception Returns
Returns1019
Yards-1137
Touchdowns02
Fumbles
Fumbles914
Lost511
Penalties
Penalties6148
Yards519467
Yards / Game43.338.9
Time of Possession
Per Game29:4030:20
Third Downs
Attempts195160
Conversions8764
Conversion %44.6%40.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1624
Conversions715
Conversion %43.8%62.5%
Red Zone
Trips4548
Scores (TD + FG)4041
Score %88.9%85.4%
Touchdowns2631
TD %57.8%64.6%
Field Goals
Attempts2016
Made1712
Pct85.0%75.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3148
Made3048
Pct96.8%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts24
Made04
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →