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TXST
Texas State
BobcatsRun-HeavyPac-12 Conference0-1#119 (-7.19)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
14· FOverall
Offense
41· CRating
45· CPer play
27· DConsistency
87· BBig plays
Defense
7· FRating
10· FPer play
12· FConsistency
Situational
20· DRed-zone O
31· DRed-zone D
81· B3rd down O
4· F3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.028
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.032
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.048
Defensive EPA/play
+0.236
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.9%
Def Success Rate
54.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
29.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.188
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.17
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.45
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.46
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.16
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.02
own return game
Return Defense
+0.15
vs opponent returns
Peer Context
Where Texas State ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense69th
Opp-adjusted defense26th
Offensive EPA/play45th
Defensive EPA/play10th
Offensive success rate27th
Explosiveness88th
Defensive havoc47th
Points per drive16th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1UAB2026OA +0.031 / -0.061similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, run defense3212UCLA2019OA -0.012 / -0.052similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, run defense3203Tulsa2023OA -0.037 / -0.092similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, run defense3194Louisiana Tech2021OA -0.043 / -0.064similar: rushing offense, run defense, takeaway rate3195Georgia State2024OA +0.015 / -0.051similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, passing offense318
2026 Schedule & Results
11 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Texas | 7-59 | L | +29.5 | L | 59.5 | O |
| 2 | vs UTSA | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 3 | vs North Texas | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 4 | vs Incarnate Word | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 5 | @ San Diego State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 7 | vs Colorado State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 8 | vs Utah State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 9 | @ Boise State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 10 | @ Oregon State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 11 | vs Fresno State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 12 | vs Washington State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
0-1
0.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
0-1
0.0%
Home ATS0-0
Away ATS0-1
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS0-1
Last 5 ATS
L
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.047 | 34th | +0.205 | 10th |
| Red Zone | -0.285 | 20th | +0.279 | 31th |
| Third Down | +0.641 | 82th | +1.042 | 4th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.048 | 46th | +0.236 | 10th |
| First Half | +0.048 | 49th | +0.188 | 14th |
| Second Half | -0.153 | 26th | +0.224 | 18th |
| Early Downs | -0.301 | 5th | -0.160 | 62th |
| Passing Downs | +0.514 | 86th | +0.441 | 10th |
| Standard Downs | -0.241 | 14th | +0.057 | 28th |
| Goal to Go | -0.285 | 20th | -0.388 | 81th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 41.4%Rush 58.6%
Havoc/Game
13.0
Havoc Rate
18.1%
TO Margin
-2.0
Explosive/G
11.0
Yards/Game
349.0
Pts/Drive
1.17
3rd Down%
57.1%
3&Out%
0.0%
Team Statistics
2026 season totals across 1 games — Texas State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Texas State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 7 | 59 |
| Points / Game | 7.0 | 59.0 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 18 | 26 |
| Rushing | 8 | 7 |
| Passing | 9 | 18 |
| Penalty | 1 | 1 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 41 | 36 |
| Yards | 161 | 156 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.9 | 4.3 |
| Yards / Game | 161.0 | 156.0 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 3 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 29 | 34 |
| Completions | 20 | 26 |
| Completion % | 69.0% | 76.5% |
| Yards | 188 | 360 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.5 | 10.6 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 4 |
| Interceptions | 1 | 1 |
| Passer Rating | 116.52 | 198.35 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 70 | 70 |
| Yards | 349 | 516 |
| Yards / Play | 5.0 | 7.4 |
| Yards / Game | 349.0 | 516.0 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 0 | 0 |
| Yards | 0 | 0 |
| Average | — | — |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 4 | 1 |
| Yards | 81 | 9 |
| Average | 20.3 | 9.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 1 | 0 |
| Yards | 17 | 0 |
| Average | 17.0 | — |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 1 | 1 |
| Yards | 0 | -5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 3 | 0 |
| Lost | 2 | 0 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 3 | 4 |
| Yards | 30 | 35 |
| Yards / Game | 30.0 | 35.0 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:26 | 29:34 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 14 | 15 |
| Conversions | 8 | 11 |
| Conversion % | 57.1% | 73.3% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 2 |
| Conversions | 1 | 2 |
| Conversion % | 33.3% | 100.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 3 | 7 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 1 | 6 |
| Score % | 33.3% | 85.7% |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 6 |
| TD % | 33.3% | 85.7% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 1 |
| Made | 0 | 1 |
| Pct | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 8 |
| Made | 1 | 8 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 0 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.