Fourth Down Data
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MISS

Ole Miss

RebelsBalanced
Southeastern Conference5-5#59 (+0.71)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

54· COverall
Offense
89· BRating
94· APer play
90· A-Consistency
94· ABig plays
Defense
2· FRating
4· FPer play
5· FConsistency
Situational
36· DRed-zone O
20· DRed-zone D
97· A+3rd down O
45· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.070
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.080
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.204
Defensive EPA/play
+0.209
lower = better
Off Success Rate
53.8%
Def Success Rate
53.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
28.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
28.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.004
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.072
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.98

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.80
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.19
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.60
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.31
own return game
Return Defense
+0.90
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#59
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#66
model 7 higher
Recruiting Rank
#18
recruiting 41 spots higher
14 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Ole Miss ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
95th
Opp-adjusted defense
0th
Offensive EPA/play
95th
Defensive EPA/play
4th
Offensive success rate
94th
Explosiveness
95th
Defensive havoc
22th
Points per drive
89th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UCLA2022OA +0.171 / -0.041similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, havoc rate4592UL Monroe2017OA +0.077 / -0.247similar: passing offense, run defense, havoc rate3713Virginia2021OA +0.166 / -0.113similar: offensive success rate, pass defense, defensive EPA3704North Texas2023OA +0.070 / -0.236similar: offensive EPA, run defense, defensive EPA3655North Texas2020OA +0.038 / -0.073similar: defensive EPA, run defense, pass defense352

2020 Schedule & Results

10 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
4vs Florida35-51L+13.5L57O
5@ Kentucky42-41W+6.0W62O
6vs Alabama48-63L+23.5W69.5O
7@ Arkansas21-33L-1.8L76U
8vs Auburn28-35L+3.3L70.5U
9@ Vanderbilt54-21W-16.5W64O
11vs South Carolina59-42W-11.0W71O
13vs Mississippi State31-24W-9.5L69U
16@ LSU48-53L-1.5L74.5O
18@ Indiana26-20W+8.0W65.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-5
50.0%
O/U Record
6-4
60.0%
Straight Up
5-5
50.0%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS2-3
Underdog ATS3-2
Last 5 ATS
WWLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off99thRush Off82thRed Zone Off37th3rd Down Off98thPass Def1thRush Def7thRed Zone Def20th3rd Down Def45th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.21297th+0.2041th
Red Zone-0.05837th+0.13220th
Third Down+0.60298th+0.09845th
No Garbage Time+0.20595th+0.2092th
First Half+0.11879th+0.1987th
Second Half+0.313100th+0.2095th
Early Downs+0.07780th+0.07616th
Passing Downs+0.50199th+0.3321th
Standard Downs+0.08982th+0.1517th
Goal to Go-0.15926th-0.31889th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 42.0%Rush 58.0%
Havoc/Game
12.0
Havoc Rate
15.1%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
21.4
Yards/Game
555.5
Pts/Drive
2.98
3rd Down%
49.6%
3&Out%
13.2%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 10 games — Ole Miss vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOle MissOpponents
Scoring
Points392383
Points / Game39.238.3
First Downs
Total276274
Rushing122108
Passing137150
Penalty1716
Rushing
Attempts462391
Yards2,1062,069
Yards / Carry4.65.3
Yards / Game210.6206.9
Touchdowns2328
Passing
Attempts335387
Completions238263
Completion %71.0%68.0%
Yards3,4493,121
Yards / Attempt10.38.1
Touchdowns3019
Interceptions146
Passer Rating178.72148.80
Total Offense
Plays797778
Yards5,5555,190
Yards / Play7.06.7
Yards / Game555.5519.0
Punt Returns
Returns76
Yards4954
Average7.09.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2122
Yards503384
Average24.017.5
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts2737
Yards1,2591,613
Average46.643.6
Interception Returns
Returns614
Yards50204
Touchdowns03
Fumbles
Fumbles913
Lost47
Penalties
Penalties6050
Yards516486
Yards / Game51.648.6
Time of Possession
Per Game27:5132:09
Third Downs
Attempts141135
Conversions7063
Conversion %49.6%46.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3318
Conversions2213
Conversion %66.7%72.2%
Red Zone
Trips6249
Scores (TD + FG)4743
Score %75.8%87.8%
Touchdowns4135
TD %66.1%71.4%
Field Goals
Attempts1013
Made612
Pct60.0%92.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4946
Made4645
Pct93.9%97.8%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts54
Made21
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →