Fourth Down Data
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UTSA

UTSA

RoadrunnersBalanced
American Conference1-0#69 (+0.91)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

50· COverall
Offense
66· CRating
85· BPer play
92· A-Consistency
74· BBig plays
Defense
43· CRating
53· CPer play
30· DConsistency
Situational
8· FRed-zone O
44· CRed-zone D
11· F3rd down O
35· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.025
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.037
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.288
Defensive EPA/play
-0.133
lower = better
Off Success Rate
58.6%
Def Success Rate
42.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
0.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.421
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
4.80

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.78
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.28
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.25
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.24
own return game
Return Defense
-0.01
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where UTSA ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
66th
Opp-adjusted defense
24th
Offensive EPA/play
85th
Defensive EPA/play
54th
Offensive success rate
87th
Explosiveness
74th
Defensive havoc
43th
Points per drive
82th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Toledo2018OA +0.098 / -0.100similar: passing offense, rushing offense, offensive EPA3372Wake Forest2026OA +0.029 / +0.010similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, turnover rate3163Middle Tennessee2026OA +0.018 / -0.072similar: offensive success rate, rushing offense, takeaway rate3094Marshall2021OA +0.091 / +0.049similar: passing offense, offensive success rate, rushing offense3055Northwestern2026OA +0.021 / -0.125similar: defensive success rate, rushing offense, offensive EPA300

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs UTRGV45-16W----
2@ Texas State------
3@ Texas------
4vs Colorado State------
5@ Rice------
6vs South Florida------
7vs Navy------
8@ Tulane------
10@ Florida Atlantic------
11vs North Texas------
12@ UAB------
13vs Tulsa------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
0-0
-
O/U Record
0-0
-
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS0-0
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS0-0
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off5thRush Off93thRed Zone Off8th3rd Down Off11thPass Def23thRush Def77thRed Zone Def45th3rd Down Def35th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.15472th-0.09554th
Red Zone-0.6478th-0.04445th
Third Down-0.60211th+0.07735th
No Garbage Time+0.05747th-0.16158th
First Half+0.28884th-0.13353th
Second Half+0.03850th-0.03645th
Early Downs+0.33895th-0.29981th
Passing Downs-0.5515th+0.25923th
Standard Downs+0.33893th-0.28177th
Goal to Go+0.60976th+0.45345th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 50.0%Rush 50.0%
Havoc/Game
14.0
Havoc Rate
17.3%
TO Margin
+2.0
Explosive/G
7.0
Yards/Game
527.0
Pts/Drive
4.80
3rd Down%
33.3%
3&Out%
0.0%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — UTSA vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUTSAOpponents
Scoring
Points4516
Points / Game45.016.0
First Downs
Total2322
Rushing107
Passing1010
Penalty35
Rushing
Attempts2934
Yards252177
Yards / Carry8.75.2
Yards / Game252.0177.0
Touchdowns21
Passing
Attempts2947
Completions2226
Completion %75.9%55.3%
Yards275245
Yards / Attempt9.55.2
Touchdowns30
Interceptions02
Passer Rating189.6690.60
Total Offense
Plays5881
Yards527422
Yards / Play9.15.2
Yards / Game527.0422.0
Punt Returns
Returns20
Yards100
Average5.0—
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns23
Yards3759
Average18.519.7
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts34
Yards130154
Average43.338.5
Interception Returns
Returns20
Yards490
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles02
Lost00
Penalties
Penalties1113
Yards115105
Yards / Game115.0105.0
Time of Possession
Per Game25:1134:49
Third Downs
Attempts918
Conversions37
Conversion %33.3%38.9%
Fourth Downs
Attempts13
Conversions01
Conversion %0.0%33.3%
Red Zone
Trips33
Scores (TD + FG)22
Score %66.7%66.7%
Touchdowns11
TD %33.3%33.3%
Field Goals
Attempts24
Made13
Pct50.0%75.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts61
Made61
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →