Fourth Down Data
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SMU

SMU

MustangsBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference1-0#17 (+7.59)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

87· BOverall
Offense
76· BRating
76· BPer play
60· CConsistency
42· CBig plays
Defense
89· BRating
46· CPer play
60· CConsistency
Situational
11· FRed-zone O
23· DRed-zone D
98· A+3rd down O
69· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.087
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.044
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.232
Defensive EPA/play
-0.047
lower = better
Off Success Rate
52.2%
Def Success Rate
39.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
19.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.278
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.45

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.58
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.11
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.17
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.31
own return game
Return Defense
+0.02
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#17
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 9 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where SMU ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
98th
Opp-adjusted defense
77th
Offensive EPA/play
77th
Defensive EPA/play
46th
Offensive success rate
67th
Explosiveness
42th
Defensive havoc
55th
Points per drive
45th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1TCU2025OA +0.044 / -0.003similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, defensive success rate3472USC2017OA +0.017 / +0.044similar: defensive success rate, offensive EPA, turnover rate3413Miami2023OA +0.054 / +0.007similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, defensive EPA3374Houston2026OA +0.008 / -0.042similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, turnover rate3285BYU2019OA +0.026 / -0.004similar: rushing offense, run defense, takeaway rate328

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Florida State27-24W-3.0P53.5U
2vs UC Davis------
3@ Louisville------
4vs Missouri State------
5vs Boston College------
7vs Virginia------
8vs California------
9@ Syracuse------
10vs Virginia Tech------
11vs Wake Forest------
12@ Notre Dame------
13@ Stanford------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
0-0-1
-
O/U Record
0-1
0.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS0-0
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
P
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off62thRush Off87thRed Zone Off11th3rd Down Off99thPass Def53thRush Def38thRed Zone Def23th3rd Down Def70th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.23286th-0.04747th
Red Zone-0.52411th+0.49523th
Third Down+1.18899th-0.27170th
No Garbage Time+0.23277th-0.04746th
First Half+0.29988th-0.07544th
Second Half+0.13764th-0.02242th
Early Downs+0.23885th+0.02031th
Passing Downs+0.22462th-0.07753th
Standard Downs+0.23687th-0.03038th
Goal to Go-0.5767th+1.27412th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 53.7%Rush 46.3%
Havoc/Game
14.0
Havoc Rate
20.6%
TO Margin
-3.0
Explosive/G
15.0
Yards/Game
585.0
Pts/Drive
2.45
3rd Down%
57.1%
3&Out%
0.0%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — SMU vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSMUOpponents
Scoring
Points2724
Points / Game27.024.0
First Downs
Total2316
Rushing77
Passing157
Penalty12
Rushing
Attempts3145
Yards155199
Yards / Carry5.04.4
Yards / Game155.0199.0
Touchdowns02
Passing
Attempts3623
Completions2612
Completion %72.2%52.2%
Yards430125
Yards / Attempt11.95.4
Touchdowns31
Interceptions20
Passer Rating188.94112.17
Total Offense
Plays6768
Yards585324
Yards / Play8.74.8
Yards / Game585.0324.0
Punt Returns
Returns31
Yards711
Average2.311.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns11
Yards2529
Average25.029.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts16
Yards49269
Average49.044.8
Interception Returns
Returns02
Yards03
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles31
Lost21
Penalties
Penalties63
Yards4727
Yards / Game47.027.0
Time of Possession
Per Game27:4432:16
Third Downs
Attempts1414
Conversions82
Conversion %57.1%14.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts04
Conversions02
Conversion %—50.0%
Red Zone
Trips42
Scores (TD + FG)32
Score %75.0%100.0%
Touchdowns12
TD %25.0%100.0%
Field Goals
Attempts31
Made21
Pct66.7%100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts33
Made33
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →