Fourth Down Data
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ARIZ

Arizona

WildcatsBalanced
Big 12 Conference1-0#65 (+1.43)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

53· COverall
Offense
32· DRating
64· CPer play
73· BConsistency
50· CBig plays
Defense
81· BRating
74· BPer play
90· A-Consistency
Situational
88· BRed-zone O
89· BRed-zone D
74· B3rd down O
6· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.001
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.003
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.142
Defensive EPA/play
-0.256
lower = better
Off Success Rate
51.4%
Def Success Rate
25.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
0.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.398
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.50

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.49
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.11
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.03
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.17
own return game
Return Defense
-0.19
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Arizona ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
46th
Opp-adjusted defense
53th
Offensive EPA/play
65th
Defensive EPA/play
75th
Offensive success rate
64th
Explosiveness
50th
Defensive havoc
99th
Points per drive
62th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Missouri2025OA -0.020 / +0.102similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, pass defense2882Clemson2022OA +0.026 / +0.116similar: TD drive rate, offensive success rate, havoc rate2803Toledo2022OA -0.078 / +0.060similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, TD drive rate2654TCU2017OA -0.025 / +0.166similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, offensive EPA2605Arkansas2026OA -0.082 / +0.014similar: takeaway rate, defensive EPA, offensive success rate260

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Northern Arizona35-7W-32.5L59.5U
2@ BYU------
3vs Northern Illinois------
4@ Washington State------
5vs Cincinnati------
6@ West Virginia------
8vs Iowa State------
9@ Texas Tech------
10vs TCU------
11vs Utah------
12@ Kansas State------
13vs Arizona State------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
0-1
0.0%
O/U Record
0-1
0.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS0-1
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
L
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off22thRush Off30thRed Zone Off89th3rd Down Off75thPass Def25thRush Def100thRed Zone Def89th3rd Down Def6th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.12721th-0.38893th
Red Zone+0.61289th-0.81289th
Third Down+0.51075th+0.7956th
No Garbage Time+0.14265th-0.25675th
First Half+0.29687th-0.10950th
Second Half-0.4864th-0.769100th
Early Downs-0.19316th-0.768100th
Passing Downs-0.19722th+0.24925th
Standard Downs-0.10030th-1.076100th
Goal to Go+0.29147th-0th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 52.8%Rush 47.2%
Havoc/Game
-
Havoc Rate
42.6%
TO Margin
-
Explosive/G
-
Yards/Game
-
Pts/Drive
3.50
3rd Down%
-
3&Out%
25.0%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Arizona vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatArizonaOpponents
Scoring
Points357
Points / Game35.07.0
First Downs
Total288
Rushing110
Passing168
Penalty10
Rushing
Attempts3421
Yards189-7
Yards / Carry5.6-0.3
Yards / Game189.0-7.0
Touchdowns30
Passing
Attempts3831
Completions2819
Completion %73.7%61.3%
Yards331200
Yards / Attempt8.76.5
Touchdowns20
Interceptions11
Passer Rating158.96109.03
Total Offense
Plays7252
Yards520193
Yards / Play7.23.7
Yards / Game520.0193.0
Punt Returns
Returns00
Yards00
Average——
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns01
Yards046
Average—46.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts36
Yards144255
Average48.042.5
Interception Returns
Returns11
Yards036
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles21
Lost20
Penalties
Penalties45
Yards3032
Yards / Game30.032.0
Time of Possession
Per Game32:1227:48
Third Downs
Attempts1214
Conversions74
Conversion %58.3%28.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts23
Conversions20
Conversion %100.0%0.0%
Red Zone
Trips41
Scores (TD + FG)40
Score %100.0%0.0%
Touchdowns40
TD %100.0%0.0%
Field Goals
Attempts01
Made00
Pct—0.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts51
Made51
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →