TCU Horned Frogs Football Analytics

TCU

Horned FrogsBalanced

Big 12 Conference0-1#107 (-5.31)

Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

22· DOverall

Offense

5· FRating

9· FPer play

6· FConsistency

20· DBig plays

Defense

51· CRating

52· CPer play

31· DConsistency

Situational

6· FRed-zone O

68· CRed-zone D

41· C3rd down O

82· B3rd down D

How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense

-0.070

Opp-Adj Defense

+0.007

higher = better

Offensive EPA/play

-0.245

Defensive EPA/play

-0.110

lower = better

Off Success Rate

35.2%

Def Success Rate

45.6%

allowed · lower = better

Explosive Rate

18.3%

pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8

Explosive Allowed

24.6%

lower = better

Net EPA/play

-0.135

net · higher = better

Recent EPA Trend

0.000

last 3 weeks

Points / Drive

0.80

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating

+0.29

expected pts/game

Kicking

+0.07

own kicking game

Kick Defense

+0.24

vs opponent kicks

Returns

+0.04

own return game

Return Defense

-0.05

vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where TCU ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense

9th

Opp-adjusted defense

56th

Offensive EPA/play

9th

Defensive EPA/play

53th

Offensive success rate

8th

Explosiveness

20th

Defensive havoc

53th

Points per drive

12th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Old Dominion2019OA -0.203 / -0.027similar: pass defense, defensive success rate, offensive success rate381 2Old Dominion2023OA -0.079 / +0.034similar: run defense, rushing offense, offensive success rate340 3Illinois2019OA -0.087 / +0.006similar: rushing offense, havoc rate, offensive EPA335 4UTEP2024OA -0.081 / +0.004similar: run defense, offensive success rate, offensive EPA317 5Middle Tennessee2022OA -0.119 / +0.006similar: run defense, turnover rate, rushing offense315

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

Wk	Opponent	Score	W/L	Spread	ATS	Total	O/U
0	vs North Carolina	10-15	L	-7.5	L	46.5	U
2	vs Grambling State	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	vs Arkansas State	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	@ UCF	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	vs BYU	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	@ Baylor	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	vs West Virginia	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	vs Kansas	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	@ Arizona	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	vs Kansas State	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	vs Utah	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	@ Texas Tech	-	-	-	-	-	-

Betting Profile

ATS Record

0-1

0.0%

O/U Record

0-1

0.0%

Straight Up

0-1

0.0%

Home ATS0-1

Away ATS0-0

Favorite ATS0-1

Underdog ATS0-0

Last 5 ATS

Full ATS log & splits →

Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Situation	OFF EPA	OFF Rank	DEF EPA	DEF Rank
Overall	-0.245	8th	-0.110	55th
Red Zone	-0.684	6th	-0.384	68th
Third Down	-0.022	42th	-0.539	82th
No Garbage Time	-0.245	9th	-0.110	52th
First Half	-0.174	21th	-0.098	47th
Second Half	-0.310	9th	-0.124	55th
Early Downs	+0.022	47th	-0.215	71th
Passing Downs	-0.448	8th	+0.250	24th
Standard Downs	-0.105	28th	-0.289	78th
Goal to Go	+0.758	83th	-0.520	84th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 45.1%Rush 54.9%

Havoc/Game

12.0

Havoc Rate

20.0%

TO Margin

+1.0

Explosive/G

13.0

Yards/Game

281.0

Pts/Drive

0.80

3rd Down%

43.8%

3&Out%

0.0%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — TCU vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.

Stat	TCU	Opponents
Scoring
Points	10	15
Points / Game	10.0	15.0
First Downs
Total	18	20
Rushing	7	5
Passing	10	12
Penalty	1	3
Rushing
Attempts	39	29
Yards	106	90
Yards / Carry	2.7	3.1
Yards / Game	106.0	90.0
Touchdowns	1	1
Passing
Attempts	32	28
Completions	20	16
Completion %	62.5%	57.1%
Yards	175	232
Yards / Attempt	5.5	8.3
Touchdowns	0	0
Interceptions	0	0
Passer Rating	108.44	126.74
Total Offense
Plays	71	57
Yards	281	322
Yards / Play	4.0	5.6
Yards / Game	281.0	322.0
Punt Returns
Returns	2	0
Yards	38	0
Average	19.0	—
Touchdowns	0	0
Kickoff Returns
Returns	0	1
Yards	0	24
Average	—	24.0
Touchdowns	0	0
Punting
Punts	2	3
Yards	87	125
Average	43.5	41.7
Interception Returns
Returns	0	0
Yards	0	0
Touchdowns	0	0
Fumbles
Fumbles	2	2
Lost	1	2
Penalties
Penalties	11	3
Yards	90	20
Yards / Game	90.0	20.0
Time of Possession
Per Game	33:01	26:59
Third Downs
Attempts	16	11
Conversions	7	3
Conversion %	43.8%	27.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts	5	1
Conversions	1	1
Conversion %	20.0%	100.0%
Red Zone
Trips	4	4
Scores (TD + FG)	2	3
Score %	50.0%	75.0%
Touchdowns	1	1
TD %	25.0%	25.0%
Field Goals
Attempts	1	3
Made	1	2
Pct	100.0%	66.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts	1	1
Made	1	1
Pct	100.0%	100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts	0	0
Made	0	0

Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.

Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →