Fourth Down Data
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ODU

Old Dominion

MonarchsBalanced
Sun Belt Conference6-7#100 (-3.90)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

26· DOverall
Offense
15· DRating
12· FPer play
8· FConsistency
25· DBig plays
Defense
50· CRating
63· CPer play
18· DConsistency
Situational
0· FRed-zone O
70· BRed-zone D
54· C3rd down O
98· A+3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.079
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.034
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.097
Defensive EPA/play
-0.027
lower = better
Off Success Rate
40.6%
Def Success Rate
48.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.070
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.043
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.71

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.58
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.92
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.56
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.12
own return game
Return Defense
-0.10
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#100
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#114
model 14 higher
Recruiting Rank
#76
recruiting 24 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Old Dominion ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
18th
Opp-adjusted defense
65th
Offensive EPA/play
12th
Defensive EPA/play
64th
Offensive success rate
5th
Explosiveness
25th
Defensive havoc
23th
Points per drive
19th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1South Carolina2025OA -0.037 / +0.088similar: passing offense, run defense, offensive success rate3622South Alabama2017OA -0.205 / -0.056similar: takeaway rate, havoc rate, passing offense3543Mississippi State2023OA -0.053 / +0.047similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, defensive EPA3504San José State2018OA -0.139 / -0.048similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, pass defense3495TCU2026OA -0.070 / +0.007similar: run defense, rushing offense, offensive success rate340

2023 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Virginia Tech17-36L+16.0L48O
2vs Louisiana38-31W+6.0W51.5O
3vs Wake Forest24-27L+14.0W61.5U
4vs East Texas A&M10-9W----
5@ Marshall35-41L+14.0W47O
6@ Southern Miss17-13W+1.5W57.5U
8vs App State28-21W+6.5W54U
9@ James Madison27-30L+19.5W49O
10vs Coastal Carolina24-28L+1.0L50.5O
11@ Liberty10-38L+13.5L59U
12@ Georgia Southern20-17W+6.0W60.5U
13vs Georgia State25-24W-2.5L54.5U
16vs Western Kentucky35-38L-2.5L55.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
6-7
46.2%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS0-2
Underdog ATS7-3
Last 5 ATS
LLWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off31thRush Off5thRed Zone Off0th3rd Down Off55thPass Def61thRush Def65thRed Zone Def71th3rd Down Def99th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.09413th-0.03972th
Red Zone-0.5470th-0.11471th
Third Down+0.21455th-0.16999th
No Garbage Time-0.09713th-0.03165th
First Half-0.12412th-0.09887th
Second Half-0.06525th+0.02244th
Early Downs-0.12911th-0.04150th
Passing Downs-0.01331th+0.00161th
Standard Downs-0.1445th-0.05765th
Goal to Go-0.4711th-0.59696th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 43.2%Rush 56.8%
Havoc/Game
13.2
Havoc Rate
16.6%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
13.3
Yards/Game
348.2
Pts/Drive
1.71
3rd Down%
37.1%
3&Out%
24.2%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 13 games — Old Dominion vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOld DominionOpponents
Scoring
Points310353
Points / Game23.827.2
First Downs
Total215290
Rushing102105
Passing95154
Penalty1831
Rushing
Attempts474529
Yards1,9941,842
Yards / Carry4.23.5
Yards / Game153.4141.7
Touchdowns1513
Passing
Attempts361448
Completions204294
Completion %56.5%65.6%
Yards2,5323,257
Yards / Attempt7.07.3
Touchdowns2028
Interceptions1111
Passer Rating127.61142.41
Total Offense
Plays835977
Yards4,5265,099
Yards / Play5.45.2
Yards / Game348.2392.2
Punt Returns
Returns1819
Yards125223
Average6.911.7
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns3035
Yards503784
Average16.822.4
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6664
Yards2,6232,375
Average39.737.1
Interception Returns
Returns1111
Yards275227
Touchdowns21
Fumbles
Fumbles1623
Lost710
Penalties
Penalties8474
Yards794651
Yards / Game61.150.1
Time of Possession
Per Game24:4935:11
Third Downs
Attempts186199
Conversions6975
Conversion %37.1%37.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2627
Conversions714
Conversion %26.9%51.9%
Red Zone
Trips3654
Scores (TD + FG)2643
Score %72.2%79.6%
Touchdowns1830
TD %50.0%55.6%
Field Goals
Attempts2119
Made1416
Pct66.7%84.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3641
Made3641
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts12
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →