Fourth Down Data
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MTSU

Middle Tennessee

Blue RaidersBalanced
Conference USA8-5#77 (-0.79)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

43· COverall
Offense
29· DRating
30· DPer play
26· DConsistency
27· DBig plays
Defense
51· CRating
74· BPer play
59· CConsistency
Situational
34· DRed-zone O
94· ARed-zone D
32· D3rd down O
28· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.119
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.006
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.076
Defensive EPA/play
-0.091
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.8%
Def Success Rate
44.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.014
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.041
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.97

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.45
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.68
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.97
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.06
own return game
Return Defense
-0.14
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#77
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#83
model 6 higher
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 2 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Middle Tennessee ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
13th
Opp-adjusted defense
55th
Offensive EPA/play
31th
Defensive EPA/play
75th
Offensive success rate
23th
Explosiveness
27th
Defensive havoc
92th
Points per drive
38th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Miami2019OA -0.046 / +0.076similar: run defense, turnover rate, offensive success rate3562Pittsburgh2020OA -0.017 / +0.037similar: rushing offense, run defense, passing offense3513California2024OA -0.026 / +0.026similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, pass defense3424Temple2019OA -0.103 / +0.056similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, rushing offense3425Northwestern2018OA -0.019 / +0.090similar: defensive EPA, offensive success rate, run defense340

2022 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ James Madison7-44L+6.0L58U
2@ Colorado State34-19W+11.5W58.5U
3vs Tennessee State49-6W-20.5W52.5O
4@ Miami45-31W+4.0L64O
5vs UTSA30-45L----
6@ UAB14-41L+9.5L53.5O
7vs Western Kentucky17-35L+8.0L67U
9@ UTEP24-13W+2.0W52U
10@ Louisiana Tech24-40L-2.5L63.25O
11vs Charlotte24-14W-10.8L67U
12vs Florida Atlantic49-21W+6.0W51O
13@ Florida International33-28W-19.5L55O
17@ San Diego State25-23W+7.0W49.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-7
46.2%
O/U Record
7-6
53.8%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS4-4
Favorite ATS1-3
Underdog ATS5-4
Last 5 ATS
LLWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off42thRush Off27thRed Zone Off35th3rd Down Off33thPass Def30thRush Def95thRed Zone Def95th3rd Down Def28th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.06335th-0.08477th
Red Zone-0.06235th-0.32895th
Third Down-0.02133th+0.14628th
No Garbage Time-0.06934th-0.09277th
First Half-0.03641th-0.06065th
Second Half-0.09227th-0.11384th
Early Downs-0.04839th-0.15693th
Passing Downs-0.04642th+0.05630th
Standard Downs-0.07227th-0.16495th
Goal to Go-0.00953th-0.04453th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 53.1%Rush 46.9%
Havoc/Game
17.8
Havoc Rate
23.2%
TO Margin
+0.9
Explosive/G
13.7
Yards/Game
373.5
Pts/Drive
1.97
3rd Down%
34.2%
3&Out%
23.5%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 13 games — Middle Tennessee vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMiddle TennesseeOpponents
Scoring
Points375360
Points / Game28.827.7
First Downs
Total263279
Rushing7492
Passing152164
Penalty3723
Rushing
Attempts453452
Yards1,4141,518
Yards / Carry3.13.4
Yards / Game108.8116.8
Touchdowns2014
Passing
Attempts512510
Completions341294
Completion %66.6%57.6%
Yards3,4423,805
Yards / Attempt6.77.5
Touchdowns2129
Interceptions1120
Passer Rating132.31131.24
Total Offense
Plays965962
Yards4,8565,323
Yards / Play5.05.5
Yards / Game373.5409.5
Punt Returns
Returns2122
Yards224129
Average10.75.9
Touchdowns20
Kickoff Returns
Returns1554
Yards3301,057
Average22.019.6
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts6859
Yards3,1572,362
Average46.440.0
Interception Returns
Returns2011
Yards283179
Touchdowns42
Fumbles
Fumbles1715
Lost710
Penalties
Penalties8593
Yards755886
Yards / Game58.168.2
Time of Possession
Per Game28:4531:15
Third Downs
Attempts202196
Conversions6975
Conversion %34.2%38.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3637
Conversions2117
Conversion %58.3%45.9%
Red Zone
Trips5649
Scores (TD + FG)4534
Score %80.4%69.4%
Touchdowns3125
TD %55.4%51.0%
Field Goals
Attempts1920
Made1613
Pct84.2%65.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4544
Made4543
Pct100.0%97.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts22
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →