Fourth Down Data
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Mississippi State

BulldogsBalanced
Southeastern Conference1-0#15 (+8.93)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

89· BOverall
Offense
94· ARating
71· BPer play
73· BConsistency
50· CBig plays
Defense
64· CRating
76· BPer play
75· BConsistency
Situational
37· DRed-zone O
46· C3rd down O
59· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.028
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.032
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.211
Defensive EPA/play
-0.270
lower = better
Off Success Rate
53.2%
Def Success Rate
41.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
15.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.481
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
5.67

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.43
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.01
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.34
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.08
own return game
Return Defense
-0.03
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#15
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 11 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where Mississippi State ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
68th
Opp-adjusted defense
72th
Offensive EPA/play
72th
Defensive EPA/play
77th
Offensive success rate
70th
Explosiveness
50th
Defensive havoc
46th
Points per drive
94th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UTSA2025OA -0.014 / +0.000similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, offensive success rate3892Texas2022OA +0.125 / +0.064similar: takeaway rate, offensive EPA, turnover rate3793Ole Miss2025OA +0.189 / -0.005similar: run defense, TD drive rate, defensive success rate3754North Carolina2023OA +0.046 / -0.032similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, offensive EPA3565TCU2022OA +0.134 / +0.023similar: TD drive rate, pass defense, defensive success rate354

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs UL Monroe62-13W-28.5W54.5O
2@ Minnesota------
3@ South Carolina------
4vs Missouri------
5vs Alabama------
7@ LSU------
8vs Oklahoma------
9@ Texas------
10vs Vanderbilt------
11vs Auburn------
12vs Tennessee Tech------
13@ Ole Miss------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-0
100.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS1-0
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
W
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off80thRush Off88thRed Zone Off37th3rd Down Off47thPass Def39thRush Def30thRed Zone Def0th3rd Down Def59th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.30392th+0.04530th
Red Zone-0.10537th-0th
Third Down+0.04347th-0.17159th
No Garbage Time+0.27585th-0.28880th
First Half+0.27581th-0.28877th
Second Half+0.35188th+0.32414th
Early Downs+0.21082th+0.00336th
Passing Downs+0.41180th+0.04039th
Standard Downs+0.26188th+0.04730th
Goal to Go+0.85390th-0th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 53.2%Rush 46.8%
Havoc/Game
12.0
Havoc Rate
17.6%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
10.0
Yards/Game
762.0
Pts/Drive
5.67
3rd Down%
45.5%
3&Out%
0.0%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Mississippi State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMississippi StateOpponents
Scoring
Points6213
Points / Game62.013.0
First Downs
Total3514
Rushing145
Passing217
Penalty02
Rushing
Attempts3740
Yards345138
Yards / Carry9.33.5
Yards / Game345.0138.0
Touchdowns40
Passing
Attempts4228
Completions2716
Completion %64.3%57.1%
Yards417140
Yards / Attempt9.95.0
Touchdowns41
Interceptions00
Passer Rating179.11110.93
Total Offense
Plays7968
Yards762278
Yards / Play9.64.1
Yards / Game762.0278.0
Punt Returns
Returns00
Yards00
Average——
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns00
Yards00
Average——
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts27
Yards71312
Average35.544.6
Interception Returns
Returns00
Yards00
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles01
Lost00
Penalties
Penalties85
Yards7855
Yards / Game78.055.0
Time of Possession
Per Game28:1331:47
Third Downs
Attempts1116
Conversions53
Conversion %45.5%18.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts13
Conversions12
Conversion %100.0%66.7%
Red Zone
Trips60
Scores (TD + FG)60
Score %100.0%—
Touchdowns40
TD %66.7%—
Field Goals
Attempts23
Made22
Pct100.0%66.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts81
Made81
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →