Fourth Down Data
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BGSU

Bowling Green

FalconsBalanced
Mid-American Conference0-1#135 (-18.12)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

2· FOverall
Offense
1· FRating
15· DPer play
53· CConsistency
19· DBig plays
Defense
4· FRating
45· CPer play
48· CConsistency
Situational
18· DRed-zone O
85· BRed-zone D
33· D3rd down O
90· A-3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.093
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.073
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.176
Defensive EPA/play
-0.045
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.3%
Def Success Rate
42.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
17.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
0.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.132
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.30

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.55
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.08
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.34
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.29
own return game
Return Defense
-0.00
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Bowling Green ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
4th
Opp-adjusted defense
6th
Offensive EPA/play
15th
Defensive EPA/play
45th
Offensive success rate
54th
Explosiveness
19th
Defensive havoc
12th
Points per drive
18th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Georgia State2017OA -0.067 / -0.042similar: pass defense, TD drive rate, passing offense3382Western Kentucky2024OA -0.008 / +0.008similar: rushing offense, havoc rate, turnover rate3023Akron2022OA -0.103 / -0.081similar: havoc rate, pass defense, rushing offense2974Wake Forest2023OA -0.025 / +0.010similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, TD drive rate2935Eastern Michigan2017OA -0.078 / +0.060similar: TD drive rate, defensive success rate, offensive EPA290

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Tarleton State13-20L-2.5L49U
2@ Nebraska------
3@ Iowa State------
4vs South Florida------
5@ Miami (OH)------
6vs Sacramento State------
7vs Ball State------
8@ Buffalo------
9@ Western Michigan------
11vs Kent State------
12@ Toledo------
13vs Massachusetts------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
0-1
0.0%
O/U Record
0-1
0.0%
Straight Up
0-1
0.0%
Home ATS0-1
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
L
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off45thRush Off12thRed Zone Off18th3rd Down Off34thPass Def78thRush Def26thRed Zone Def85th3rd Down Def91th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.17615th-0.04546th
Red Zone-0.31518th-0.74885th
Third Down-0.12934th-0.78791th
No Garbage Time-0.17615th-0.04545th
First Half-0.15823th+0.24810th
Second Half-0.18920th-0.47893th
Early Downs-0.19315th+0.2867th
Passing Downs+0.00245th-0.32378th
Standard Downs-0.26412th+0.07326th
Goal to Go+0.87191th-1.427100th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 44.8%Rush 55.2%
Havoc/Game
6.0
Havoc Rate
10.5%
TO Margin
-1.0
Explosive/G
12.0
Yards/Game
366.0
Pts/Drive
1.30
3rd Down%
46.2%
3&Out%
10.0%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Bowling Green vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatBowling GreenOpponents
Scoring
Points1320
Points / Game13.020.0
First Downs
Total2119
Rushing47
Passing159
Penalty23
Rushing
Attempts3733
Yards104258
Yards / Carry2.87.8
Yards / Game104.0258.0
Touchdowns10
Passing
Attempts3024
Completions2416
Completion %80.0%66.7%
Yards262206
Yards / Attempt8.78.6
Touchdowns02
Interceptions00
Passer Rating153.36166.27
Total Offense
Plays6757
Yards366464
Yards / Play5.58.1
Yards / Game366.0464.0
Punt Returns
Returns00
Yards00
Average——
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns43
Yards6258
Average15.519.3
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts31
Yards13162
Average43.762.0
Interception Returns
Returns00
Yards00
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles21
Lost21
Penalties
Penalties77
Yards6562
Yards / Game65.062.0
Time of Possession
Per Game34:5825:02
Third Downs
Attempts1310
Conversions61
Conversion %46.2%10.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts25
Conversions12
Conversion %50.0%40.0%
Red Zone
Trips34
Scores (TD + FG)23
Score %66.7%75.0%
Touchdowns11
TD %33.3%25.0%
Field Goals
Attempts22
Made22
Pct100.0%100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts12
Made12
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →