Fourth Down Data
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WKU

Western Kentucky

HilltoppersBalanced
Conference USA8-6#52 (+2.09)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

61· COverall
Offense
50· CRating
33· DPer play
45· CConsistency
18· DBig plays
Defense
60· CRating
67· CPer play
45· CConsistency
Situational
28· DRed-zone O
54· CRed-zone D
84· B3rd down O
47· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.008
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.008
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.019
Defensive EPA/play
-0.050
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.8%
Def Success Rate
46.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.031
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.197
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.19

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.75
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.78
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.15
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.12
own return game
Return Defense
-0.06
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#52
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#52
model & market agree
Recruiting Rank
#80
model 28 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Western Kentucky ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
37th
Opp-adjusted defense
60th
Offensive EPA/play
34th
Defensive EPA/play
68th
Offensive success rate
46th
Explosiveness
18th
Defensive havoc
5th
Points per drive
48th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Middle Tennessee2018OA +0.025 / +0.049similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, rushing offense3632Troy2020OA -0.011 / +0.020similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, turnover rate3513Louisiana Tech2021OA -0.043 / -0.064similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, offensive success rate3174Georgia State2017OA -0.067 / -0.042similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, rushing offense3155South Alabama2020OA -0.014 / -0.016similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, havoc rate312

2024 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Alabama0-63L+31.5L59.5O
2vs Eastern Kentucky31-0W-20.5W59.5U
3@ Middle Tennessee49-21W-7.0W54.5O
4vs Toledo26-21W+2.5W60U
5@ Boston College20-21L+13.0W54.5U
7vs UTEP44-17W+2.5W55.5U
8@ Sam Houston31-14W----
10vs Kennesaw State31-14W----
11@ New Mexico State41-28W-18.0L52O
12vs Louisiana Tech7-12L-13.5L53U
13@ Liberty21-38L+1.0L57.5O
14vs Jacksonville State19-17W-1.5W60.75U
15@ Jacksonville State12-52L----
17@ James Madison17-27L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-7
50.0%
O/U Record
6-8
42.9%
Straight Up
8-6
57.1%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS3-5
Favorite ATS4-3
Underdog ATS3-4
Last 5 ATS
LLLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off40thRush Off42thRed Zone Off28th3rd Down Off85thPass Def61thRush Def40thRed Zone Def54th3rd Down Def47th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.01637th-0.00147th
Red Zone-0.09128th-0.02254th
Third Down+0.28685th+0.08747th
No Garbage Time-0.02034th-0.04767th
First Half-0.00347th-0.01249th
Second Half-0.03327th+0.00946th
Early Downs-0.07222th+0.04421th
Passing Downs-0.00740th-0.05461th
Standard Downs-0.02042th+0.02640th
Goal to Go-0.14025th-0.05159th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 51.6%Rush 48.4%
Havoc/Game
9.4
Havoc Rate
13.6%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
13.0
Yards/Game
373.5
Pts/Drive
2.19
3rd Down%
41.5%
3&Out%
20.3%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 14 games — Western Kentucky vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatWestern KentuckyOpponents
Scoring
Points349345
Points / Game24.924.6
First Downs
Total270282
Rushing89163
Passing161104
Penalty2015
Rushing
Attempts440619
Yards1,5243,097
Yards / Carry3.55.0
Yards / Game108.9221.2
Touchdowns1426
Passing
Attempts470321
Completions309195
Completion %65.7%60.7%
Yards3,7052,465
Yards / Attempt7.97.7
Touchdowns2818
Interceptions1210
Passer Rating146.51137.53
Total Offense
Plays910940
Yards5,2295,562
Yards / Play5.75.9
Yards / Game373.5397.3
Punt Returns
Returns1517
Yards47130
Average3.17.6
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2639
Yards494831
Average19.021.3
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts5556
Yards2,3502,299
Average42.741.1
Interception Returns
Returns1012
Yards109116
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles2217
Lost1210
Penalties
Penalties5871
Yards578628
Yards / Game41.344.9
Time of Possession
Per Game27:5032:08
Third Downs
Attempts188190
Conversions7884
Conversion %41.5%44.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3225
Conversions1913
Conversion %59.4%52.0%
Red Zone
Trips5144
Scores (TD + FG)3935
Score %76.5%79.5%
Touchdowns3028
TD %58.8%63.6%
Field Goals
Attempts1918
Made1810
Pct94.7%55.6%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4145
Made4145
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts10
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →