Fourth Down Data
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UNC

North Carolina

Tar HeelsBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference1-0#36 (+5.31)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

74· BOverall
Offense
43· CRating
23· DPer play
42· CConsistency
65· CBig plays
Defense
97· A+Rating
74· BPer play
73· BConsistency
Situational
15· DRed-zone O
83· BRed-zone D
13· F3rd down O
42· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.007
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.070
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.110
Defensive EPA/play
-0.245
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.6%
Def Success Rate
35.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
18.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.135
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.30

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.29
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.24
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.07
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.05
own return game
Return Defense
-0.04
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where North Carolina ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
39th
Opp-adjusted defense
91th
Offensive EPA/play
23th
Defensive EPA/play
74th
Offensive success rate
39th
Explosiveness
66th
Defensive havoc
45th
Points per drive
18th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Western Kentucky2019OA -0.013 / +0.057similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, defensive success rate3362Temple2017OA -0.067 / +0.055similar: takeaway rate, run defense, offensive success rate3313Troy2020OA -0.011 / +0.020similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, takeaway rate3314Tennessee2019OA -0.013 / +0.086similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, havoc rate3305Wake Forest2023OA -0.025 / +0.010similar: TD drive rate, rushing offense, defensive success rate321

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0@ TCU15-10W+7.5W46.5U
2vs East Tennessee State------
3@ Clemson------
5vs Notre Dame------
6@ Pittsburgh------
7@ Duke------
8vs Syracuse------
9vs Miami------
10@ UConn------
11vs Louisville------
12@ Virginia------
13vs NC State------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-0
100.0%
O/U Record
0-1
0.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS0-0
Away ATS1-0
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS1-0
Last 5 ATS
W
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off65thRush Off9thRed Zone Off15th3rd Down Off13thPass Def88thRush Def51thRed Zone Def84th3rd Down Def42th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.11024th-0.24579th
Red Zone-0.38415th-0.68484th
Third Down-0.53913th-0.02242th
No Garbage Time-0.11023th-0.24574th
First Half-0.09830th-0.17458th
Second Half-0.12429th-0.31082th
Early Downs-0.21513th+0.02231th
Passing Downs+0.25065th-0.44888th
Standard Downs-0.2899th-0.10551th
Goal to Go-0.52011th+0.75827th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 49.1%Rush 50.9%
Havoc/Game
13.0
Havoc Rate
17.6%
TO Margin
-1.0
Explosive/G
14.0
Yards/Game
322.0
Pts/Drive
1.30
3rd Down%
27.3%
3&Out%
10.0%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — North Carolina vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNorth CarolinaOpponents
Scoring
Points1510
Points / Game15.010.0
First Downs
Total2018
Rushing57
Passing1210
Penalty31
Rushing
Attempts2939
Yards90106
Yards / Carry3.12.7
Yards / Game90.0106.0
Touchdowns11
Passing
Attempts2832
Completions1620
Completion %57.1%62.5%
Yards232175
Yards / Attempt8.35.5
Touchdowns00
Interceptions00
Passer Rating126.74108.44
Total Offense
Plays5771
Yards322281
Yards / Play5.64.0
Yards / Game322.0281.0
Punt Returns
Returns02
Yards038
Average—19.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns10
Yards240
Average24.0—
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts32
Yards12587
Average41.743.5
Interception Returns
Returns00
Yards00
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles22
Lost21
Penalties
Penalties311
Yards2090
Yards / Game20.090.0
Time of Possession
Per Game26:5933:01
Third Downs
Attempts1116
Conversions37
Conversion %27.3%43.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts15
Conversions11
Conversion %100.0%20.0%
Red Zone
Trips44
Scores (TD + FG)32
Score %75.0%50.0%
Touchdowns11
TD %25.0%25.0%
Field Goals
Attempts31
Made21
Pct66.7%100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts11
Made11
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →