Fourth Down Data
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NEB

Nebraska

CornhuskersBalanced
Big Ten Conference1-0#61 (+2.39)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

56· COverall
Offense
84· BRating
92· A-Per play
82· BConsistency
92· A-Big plays
Defense
32· DRating
41· CPer play
59· CConsistency
Situational
85· BRed-zone O
16· DRed-zone D
95· A3rd down O
72· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.067
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.017
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.353
Defensive EPA/play
-0.024
lower = better
Off Success Rate
58.1%
Def Success Rate
38.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
31.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.377
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
4.45

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.50
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.03
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.27
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.15
own return game
Return Defense
-0.04
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Nebraska ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
94th
Opp-adjusted defense
36th
Offensive EPA/play
93th
Defensive EPA/play
42th
Offensive success rate
85th
Explosiveness
93th
Defensive havoc
60th
Points per drive
75th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UCLA2021OA +0.125 / -0.079similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, offensive success rate3652Louisville2021OA +0.077 / +0.021similar: turnover rate, havoc rate, defensive EPA3573TCU2022OA +0.134 / +0.023similar: passing offense, havoc rate, offensive EPA3564Baylor2024OA +0.032 / -0.011similar: passing offense, defensive success rate, turnover rate3525Ole Miss2025OA +0.189 / -0.005similar: offensive success rate, run defense, offensive EPA350

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Ohio49-21W-24.0W47.5O
2vs Bowling Green------
3vs North Dakota------
4@ Michigan State------
5vs Maryland------
6vs Indiana------
7@ Oregon------
9vs Washington------
10@ Illinois------
11@ Rutgers------
12vs Ohio State------
13@ Iowa------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-0
100.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS1-0
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
W
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off98thRush Off77thRed Zone Off85th3rd Down Off96thPass Def72thRush Def20thRed Zone Def16th3rd Down Def73th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.35394th-0.03044th
Red Zone+0.55185th+0.60116th
Third Down+1.08996th-0.32073th
No Garbage Time+0.33193th+0.06027th
First Half+0.18569th+0.08926th
Second Half+0.53197th-0.17063th
Early Downs+0.09065th+0.01733th
Passing Downs+0.85498th-0.23472th
Standard Downs+0.15577th+0.10620th
Goal to Go+0.28446th+0.60134th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 43.2%Rush 56.8%
Havoc/Game
15.0
Havoc Rate
22.4%
TO Margin
+1.0
Explosive/G
23.0
Yards/Game
523.0
Pts/Drive
4.45
3rd Down%
64.3%
3&Out%
9.1%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Nebraska vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNebraskaOpponents
Scoring
Points4921
Points / Game49.021.0
First Downs
Total2817
Rushing139
Passing137
Penalty21
Rushing
Attempts4233
Yards248139
Yards / Carry5.94.2
Yards / Game248.0139.0
Touchdowns41
Passing
Attempts3232
Completions1814
Completion %56.3%43.8%
Yards275164
Yards / Attempt8.65.1
Touchdowns31
Interceptions01
Passer Rating159.3890.86
Total Offense
Plays7465
Yards523303
Yards / Play7.14.7
Yards / Game523.0303.0
Punt Returns
Returns10
Yards90
Average9.0—
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns11
Yards823
Average8.023.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts34
Yards120181
Average40.045.3
Interception Returns
Returns10
Yards350
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles11
Lost00
Penalties
Penalties92
Yards6530
Yards / Game65.030.0
Time of Possession
Per Game30:3929:21
Third Downs
Attempts1415
Conversions96
Conversion %64.3%40.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts21
Conversions11
Conversion %50.0%100.0%
Red Zone
Trips42
Scores (TD + FG)42
Score %100.0%100.0%
Touchdowns42
TD %100.0%100.0%
Field Goals
Attempts03
Made02
Pct—66.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts71
Made71
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts01
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →