Fourth Down Data
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USC

USC

TrojansBalanced
Big Ten Conference2-0#2 (+15.55)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

98· A+Overall
Offense
95· ARating
82· BPer play
95· AConsistency
41· CBig plays
Defense
99· A+Rating
82· BPer play
63· CConsistency
Situational
49· CRed-zone O
74· BRed-zone D
76· B3rd down O
67· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.069
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.086
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.272
Defensive EPA/play
-0.379
lower = better
Off Success Rate
61.1%
Def Success Rate
46.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.650
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.001
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
4.67

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.07
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.15
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.12
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.04
own return game
Return Defense
+0.00
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#2
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 24 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where USC ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
96th
Opp-adjusted defense
94th
Offensive EPA/play
82th
Defensive EPA/play
83th
Offensive success rate
93th
Explosiveness
42th
Defensive havoc
58th
Points per drive
77th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Ball State2020OA +0.028 / +0.019similar: havoc rate, offensive success rate, passing offense3972Boise State2018OA +0.145 / +0.073similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, TD drive rate3663App State2023OA +0.064 / -0.010similar: takeaway rate, offensive EPA, rushing offense3164Kansas State2021OA +0.051 / +0.065similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, defensive success rate3125Illinois2025OA +0.115 / +0.021similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, pass defense309

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0vs San José State42-26W-38.5L61.5O
1vs Fresno State39-0W-21.5W51.5U
2vs Louisiana------
3@ Rutgers------
4vs Oregon------
5vs Washington------
6@ Penn State------
8@ Wisconsin------
9vs Ohio State------
11@ Indiana------
12vs Maryland------
13@ UCLA------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-1
50.0%
O/U Record
1-1
50.0%
Straight Up
2-0
100.0%
Home ATS1-1
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS1-1
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
LW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off91thRush Off50thRed Zone Off49th3rd Down Off77thPass Def29thRush Def48thRed Zone Def75th3rd Down Def68th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.17173th+0.00836th
Red Zone+0.08549th-0.48175th
Third Down+0.52077th-0.25468th
No Garbage Time+0.27383th-0.37185th
First Half+0.28783th-0.37183th
Second Half+0.01746th+0.3889th
Early Downs+0.03551th+0.2239th
Passing Downs+0.58791th+0.19529th
Standard Downs+0.04750th-0.09748th
Goal to Go+0.10034th-0.30075th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.5%Rush 53.5%
Havoc/Game
11.0
Havoc Rate
21.6%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
9.5
Yards/Game
528.5
Pts/Drive
4.67
3rd Down%
66.7%
3&Out%
0.0%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 2 games — USC vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUSCOpponents
Scoring
Points8126
Points / Game40.513.0
First Downs
Total5628
Rushing208
Passing3516
Penalty14
Rushing
Attempts7753
Yards304141
Yards / Carry3.92.7
Yards / Game152.070.5
Touchdowns61
Passing
Attempts6747
Completions5928
Completion %88.1%59.6%
Yards753311
Yards / Attempt11.26.6
Touchdowns52
Interceptions11
Passer Rating204.11124.94
Total Offense
Plays144100
Yards1,057452
Yards / Play7.34.5
Yards / Game528.5226.0
Punt Returns
Returns50
Yards770
Average15.4—
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns63
Yards10850
Average18.016.7
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts28
Yards90336
Average45.042.0
Interception Returns
Returns11
Yards06
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles31
Lost21
Penalties
Penalties104
Yards7825
Yards / Game39.012.5
Time of Possession
Per Game38:0421:57
Third Downs
Attempts2121
Conversions147
Conversion %66.7%33.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts42
Conversions20
Conversion %50.0%0.0%
Red Zone
Trips135
Scores (TD + FG)103
Score %76.9%60.0%
Touchdowns102
TD %76.9%40.0%
Field Goals
Attempts01
Made01
Pct—100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts111
Made111
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts02
Made02
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →