Fourth Down Data
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GASO

Georgia Southern

EaglesPass-Heavy
Sun Belt Conference1-0#57 (+2.59)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

59· COverall
Offense
39· DRating
41· CPer play
68· CConsistency
72· BBig plays
Defense
87· BRating
94· APer play
94· AConsistency
Situational
37· DRed-zone O
94· ARed-zone D
43· C3rd down O
66· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.032
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.085
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.025
Defensive EPA/play
-0.615
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.8%
Def Success Rate
28.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
0.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.640
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.88

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.80
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.30
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.26
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.22
own return game
Return Defense
-0.01
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Georgia Southern ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
20th
Opp-adjusted defense
93th
Offensive EPA/play
42th
Defensive EPA/play
95th
Offensive success rate
42th
Explosiveness
72th
Defensive havoc
99th
Points per drive
66th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Toledo2025OA -0.058 / +0.113similar: havoc rate, defensive EPA, defensive success rate4092Clemson2022OA +0.026 / +0.116similar: havoc rate, TD drive rate, run defense3903Clemson2023OA -0.056 / +0.214similar: passing offense, havoc rate, defensive EPA3774Texas A&M2026OA -0.017 / +0.099similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, TD drive rate3685Texas2024OA +0.011 / +0.096similar: defensive success rate, run defense, havoc rate361

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Charleston Southern31-0W-28.0W51.5U
2@ Clemson------
3@ Jacksonville State------
4vs Houston------
5@ Coastal Carolina------
6vs James Madison------
7@ Old Dominion------
9vs App State------
10vs Marshall------
11@ Georgia State------
12@ Troy------
13vs Louisiana Tech------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-0
100.0%
O/U Record
0-1
0.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS1-0
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
W
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off58thRush Off21thRed Zone Off38th3rd Down Off43thPass Def96thRush Def79thRed Zone Def95th3rd Down Def66th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.04833th-0.46797th
Red Zone-0.10038th-1.08495th
Third Down+0.01443th-0.25266th
No Garbage Time+0.02542th-0.61596th
First Half-0.04036th-0.71996th
Second Half-0.05938th-0.31082th
Early Downs-0.10826th-0.41991th
Passing Downs+0.15058th-0.64196th
Standard Downs-0.14921th-0.29379th
Goal to Go+0.69681th-0th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 61.0%Rush 39.0%
Havoc/Game
27.0
Havoc Rate
45.0%
TO Margin
+1.0
Explosive/G
14.0
Yards/Game
513.0
Pts/Drive
3.88
3rd Down%
38.5%
3&Out%
12.5%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Georgia Southern vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatGeorgia SouthernOpponents
Scoring
Points310
Points / Game31.00.0
First Downs
Total2610
Rushing82
Passing175
Penalty13
Rushing
Attempts3031
Yards1628
Yards / Carry5.40.3
Yards / Game162.08.0
Touchdowns30
Passing
Attempts4729
Completions339
Completion %70.2%31.0%
Yards351109
Yards / Attempt7.53.8
Touchdowns10
Interceptions01
Passer Rating139.9755.71
Total Offense
Plays7760
Yards513117
Yards / Play6.71.9
Yards / Game513.0117.0
Punt Returns
Returns51
Yards3513
Average7.013.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns01
Yards014
Average—14.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts410
Yards161418
Average40.341.8
Interception Returns
Returns10
Yards00
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles31
Lost11
Penalties
Penalties64
Yards6535
Yards / Game65.035.0
Time of Possession
Per Game32:1127:49
Third Downs
Attempts1318
Conversions55
Conversion %38.5%27.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts21
Conversions11
Conversion %50.0%100.0%
Red Zone
Trips51
Scores (TD + FG)40
Score %80.0%0.0%
Touchdowns30
TD %60.0%0.0%
Field Goals
Attempts20
Made10
Pct50.0%—
PAT Kicking
Attempts40
Made40
Pct100.0%—
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →