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RICE
Rice
OwlsRun-HeavyAmerican Conference1-0#73 (+0.32)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
47· COverall
Offense
39· DRating
61· CPer play
86· BConsistency
36· DBig plays
Defense
59· CRating
81· BPer play
77· BConsistency
Situational
21· DRed-zone O
79· B3rd down O
58· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.005
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.029
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.131
Defensive EPA/play
-0.345
lower = better
Off Success Rate
58.8%
Def Success Rate
36.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
0.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.476
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.88
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.78
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.16
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.48
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.27
own return game
Return Defense
+0.13
vs opponent returns
Peer Context
Where Rice ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense42th
Opp-adjusted defense69th
Offensive EPA/play61th
Defensive EPA/play82th
Offensive success rate88th
Explosiveness36th
Defensive havoc74th
Points per drive66th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Virginia2025OA -0.007 / +0.085similar: takeaway rate, defensive EPA, offensive EPA3532Texas A&M2024OA +0.023 / +0.028similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, run defense3393New Mexico2026OA +0.017 / +0.073similar: rushing offense, havoc rate, offensive EPA3324Virginia2018OA +0.030 / +0.073similar: offensive EPA, havoc rate, turnover rate3275Mississippi State2017OA +0.003 / +0.186similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, pass defense327
2026 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Houston Christian | 31-3 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | @ Notre Dame | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 3 | vs Western Michigan | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 4 | @ Fresno State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 5 | vs UTSA | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 6 | @ East Carolina | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 7 | vs Tulsa | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 8 | @ Florida Atlantic | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 10 | @ North Texas | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 11 | vs Tulane | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 12 | @ Temple | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 13 | vs Army | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
0-0
-
O/U Record
0-0
-
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS0-0
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS0-0
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.103 | 64th | -0.278 | 82th |
| Red Zone | -0.274 | 21th | - | 0th |
| Third Down | +0.606 | 80th | -0.166 | 58th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.099 | 58th | -0.330 | 82th |
| First Half | +0.103 | 56th | -0.326 | 80th |
| Second Half | +0.104 | 61th | -0.248 | 74th |
| Early Downs | +0.068 | 59th | -0.155 | 61th |
| Passing Downs | +0.130 | 56th | -0.244 | 74th |
| Standard Downs | +0.093 | 63th | -0.305 | 80th |
| Goal to Go | -0.310 | 19th | - | 0th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 12.5%Rush 87.5%
Havoc/Game
15.0
Havoc Rate
25.9%
TO Margin
+1.0
Explosive/G
16.0
Yards/Game
493.0
Pts/Drive
3.88
3rd Down%
64.7%
3&Out%
0.0%
Team Statistics
2026 season totals across 1 games — Rice vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Rice | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 31 | 3 |
| Points / Game | 31.0 | 3.0 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 27 | 13 |
| Rushing | 25 | 7 |
| Passing | 2 | 5 |
| Penalty | 0 | 1 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 70 | 35 |
| Yards | 465 | 148 |
| Yards / Carry | 6.6 | 4.2 |
| Yards / Game | 465.0 | 148.0 |
| Touchdowns | 4 | 0 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 10 | 23 |
| Completions | 4 | 8 |
| Completion % | 40.0% | 34.8% |
| Yards | 28 | 98 |
| Yards / Attempt | 2.8 | 4.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions | 0 | 1 |
| Passer Rating | 63.52 | 61.88 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 80 | 58 |
| Yards | 493 | 246 |
| Yards / Play | 6.2 | 4.2 |
| Yards / Game | 493.0 | 246.0 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 0 | 0 |
| Yards | 0 | 0 |
| Average | — | — |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 2 | 4 |
| Yards | 25 | 58 |
| Average | 12.5 | 14.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 1 | 4 |
| Yards | 54 | 189 |
| Average | 54.0 | 47.3 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 1 | 0 |
| Yards | 34 | 0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 1 | 2 |
| Lost | 0 | 0 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 3 | 3 |
| Yards | 30 | 25 |
| Yards / Game | 30.0 | 25.0 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 39:32 | 20:28 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 17 | 13 |
| Conversions | 11 | 4 |
| Conversion % | 64.7% | 30.8% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 4 |
| Conversions | 1 | 0 |
| Conversion % | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 5 | 0 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 4 | 0 |
| Score % | 80.0% | — |
| Touchdowns | 3 | 0 |
| TD % | 60.0% | — |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 1 |
| Made | 1 | 1 |
| Pct | 50.0% | 100.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 4 | 0 |
| Made | 4 | 0 |
| Pct | 100.0% | — |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 0 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.