← All Teams
UVA
Virginia
CavaliersRun-HeavyAtlantic Coast Conference8-5#36 (+4.23)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
73· BOverall
Offense
60· CRating
62· CPer play
83· BConsistency
63· CBig plays
Defense
79· BRating
68· CPer play
78· BConsistency
Situational
50· CRed-zone O
82· BRed-zone D
98· A+3rd down O
55· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.030
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.073
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.033
Defensive EPA/play
-0.062
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.3%
Def Success Rate
42.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.095
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.125
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.49
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.14
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.16
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.16
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.10
own return game
Return Defense
-0.23
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#36
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#66
model 30 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Virginia ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense61th
Opp-adjusted defense77th
Offensive EPA/play62th
Defensive EPA/play68th
Offensive success rate82th
Explosiveness64th
Defensive havoc77th
Points per drive75th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Florida2018OA +0.119 / +0.119similar: pass defense, TD drive rate, rushing offense3632Baylor2021OA -0.042 / +0.084similar: rushing offense, turnover rate, offensive EPA3413App State2020OA +0.035 / +0.030similar: defensive success rate, offensive success rate, defensive EPA3364Fresno State2022OA +0.017 / +0.055similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, turnover rate3355Iowa State2020OA +0.039 / +0.038similar: havoc rate, rushing offense, turnover rate335
2018 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Richmond | 42-13 | W | +3.5 | W | 54 | U |
| 2 | @ Indiana | 16-20 | L | +5.0 | W | 48.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Ohio | 45-31 | W | -5.0 | W | 54.5 | O |
| 4 | vs Louisville | 27-3 | W | -4.5 | W | 51.5 | U |
| 5 | @ NC State | 21-35 | L | +5.5 | L | 52.5 | O |
| 7 | vs Miami | 16-13 | W | +7.0 | W | 46.5 | U |
| 8 | @ Duke | 28-14 | W | +6.5 | W | 45.5 | U |
| 9 | vs North Carolina | 31-21 | W | -7.5 | W | 51 | O |
| 10 | vs Pittsburgh | 13-23 | L | -7.0 | L | 45.5 | U |
| 11 | vs Liberty | 45-24 | W | -24.0 | L | 58 | O |
| 12 | @ Georgia Tech | 27-30 | L | +6.0 | W | 52.5 | O |
| 13 | @ Virginia Tech | 31-34 | L | -5.0 | L | 49.5 | O |
| 18 | vs South Carolina | 28-0 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-4
66.7%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS3-3
Underdog ATS5-1
Last 5 ATS
WLLWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.023 | 58th | -0.073 | 75th |
| Red Zone | +0.020 | 50th | -0.160 | 83th |
| Third Down | +0.515 | 98th | +0.008 | 56th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.025 | 57th | -0.052 | 66th |
| First Half | +0.021 | 55th | -0.059 | 67th |
| Second Half | +0.025 | 60th | -0.088 | 81th |
| Early Downs | -0.043 | 32th | -0.008 | 46th |
| Passing Downs | -0.033 | 36th | -0.184 | 89th |
| Standard Downs | +0.048 | 70th | -0.008 | 48th |
| Goal to Go | -0.123 | 21th | -0.021 | 67th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 41.8%Rush 58.2%
Havoc/Game
13.9
Havoc Rate
21.4%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
15.2
Yards/Game
384.8
Pts/Drive
2.49
3rd Down%
49.1%
3&Out%
16.0%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 13 games — Virginia vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Virginia | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 370 | 261 |
| Points / Game | 28.5 | 20.1 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 276 | 213 |
| Rushing | 136 | 92 |
| Passing | 124 | 109 |
| Penalty | 16 | 12 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 499 | 442 |
| Yards | 2,252 | 1,918 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| Yards / Game | 173.2 | 147.5 |
| Touchdowns | 19 | 15 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 358 | 373 |
| Completions | 228 | 196 |
| Completion % | 63.7% | 52.5% |
| Yards | 2,751 | 2,379 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.7 | 6.4 |
| Touchdowns | 26 | 12 |
| Interceptions | 9 | 17 |
| Passer Rating | 147.17 | 107.62 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 857 | 815 |
| Yards | 5,003 | 4,297 |
| Yards / Play | 5.8 | 5.3 |
| Yards / Game | 384.8 | 330.5 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 36 | 14 |
| Yards | 247 | 45 |
| Average | 6.9 | 3.2 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 32 | 24 |
| Yards | 814 | 599 |
| Average | 25.4 | 25.0 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 52 | 61 |
| Yards | 2,130 | 2,555 |
| Average | 41.0 | 41.9 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 17 | 9 |
| Yards | 287 | 167 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 19 | 12 |
| Lost | 10 | 4 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 59 | 71 |
| Yards | 528 | 638 |
| Yards / Game | 40.6 | 49.1 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 32:34 | 27:26 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 171 | 181 |
| Conversions | 84 | 73 |
| Conversion % | 49.1% | 40.3% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 13 | 23 |
| Conversions | 8 | 10 |
| Conversion % | 61.5% | 43.5% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 54 | 33 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 40 | 28 |
| Score % | 74.1% | 84.8% |
| Touchdowns | 28 | 18 |
| TD % | 51.9% | 54.5% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 22 | 21 |
| Made | 15 | 16 |
| Pct | 68.2% | 76.2% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 45 | 26 |
| Made | 45 | 25 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 96.2% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 4 |
| Made | 1 | 3 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.