Fourth Down Data
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LT

Louisiana Tech

BulldogsRun-Heavy
Sun Belt Conference1-0#9 (+10.48)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

93· AOverall
Offense
98· A+Rating
99· A+Per play
98· A+Consistency
99· A+Big plays
Defense
53· CRating
87· BPer play
94· AConsistency
Situational
81· BRed-zone O
75· BRed-zone D
84· B3rd down O
27· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.085
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.038
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.745
Defensive EPA/play
-0.474
lower = better
Off Success Rate
55.9%
Def Success Rate
39.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
40.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
0.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+1.218
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
7.00

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.19
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.04
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.46
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.66
own return game
Return Defense
+0.03
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#9
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 17 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where Louisiana Tech ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
97th
Opp-adjusted defense
74th
Offensive EPA/play
100th
Defensive EPA/play
88th
Offensive success rate
80th
Explosiveness
100th
Defensive havoc
96th
Points per drive
99th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Notre Dame2025OA +0.212 / +0.144similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, offensive EPA3992Ohio State2024OA +0.088 / +0.071similar: TD drive rate, havoc rate, offensive EPA3833Penn State2024OA +0.078 / +0.056similar: havoc rate, run defense, offensive EPA3754Indiana2024OA +0.060 / +0.030similar: havoc rate, turnover rate, passing offense3665Alabama2018OA +0.280 / +0.145similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, passing offense365

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Northwestern State80-6W-44.5W56.5O
2@ LSU------
3@ Baylor------
5vs Army------
6vs Louisiana------
7@ UL Monroe------
8vs Old Dominion------
9@ South Alabama------
10@ Troy------
11vs Southern Miss------
12vs Arkansas State------
13@ Georgia Southern------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-0
100.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS1-0
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
W
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off95thRush Off89thRed Zone Off82th3rd Down Off85thPass Def65thRush Def74thRed Zone Def76th3rd Down Def28th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.39097th-0.22777th
Red Zone+0.43882th-0.52676th
Third Down+0.68485th+0.20528th
No Garbage Time+0.640100th-0.36785th
First Half+0.640100th-0.36782th
Second Half+0.09355th-0.02645th
Early Downs+0.26688th-0.26578th
Passing Downs+0.67095th-0.19765th
Standard Downs+0.27789th-0.26174th
Goal to Go+0.36256th-0th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 37.3%Rush 62.7%
Havoc/Game
22.0
Havoc Rate
36.1%
TO Margin
+1.0
Explosive/G
8.0
Yards/Game
528.0
Pts/Drive
7.00
3rd Down%
63.6%
3&Out%
0.0%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Louisiana Tech vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatLouisiana TechOpponents
Scoring
Points806
Points / Game80.06.0
First Downs
Total237
Rushing105
Passing112
Penalty20
Rushing
Attempts3745
Yards23286
Yards / Carry6.31.9
Yards / Game232.086.0
Touchdowns40
Passing
Attempts2216
Completions175
Completion %77.3%31.3%
Yards29643
Yards / Attempt13.52.7
Touchdowns60
Interceptions01
Passer Rating280.2941.33
Total Offense
Plays5961
Yards528129
Yards / Play8.92.1
Yards / Game528.0129.0
Punt Returns
Returns51
Yards970
Average19.40.0
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns10
Yards120
Average12.0—
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts210
Yards74365
Average37.036.5
Interception Returns
Returns10
Yards00
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles02
Lost00
Penalties
Penalties26
Yards1564
Yards / Game15.064.0
Time of Possession
Per Game24:5235:08
Third Downs
Attempts1118
Conversions74
Conversion %63.6%22.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts11
Conversions10
Conversion %100.0%0.0%
Red Zone
Trips52
Scores (TD + FG)52
Score %100.0%100.0%
Touchdowns50
TD %100.0%0.0%
Field Goals
Attempts12
Made12
Pct100.0%100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts110
Made110
Pct100.0%—
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →